• Nigeria’s real GDP grew 4.07% year-on-year in Q4 2025, up from 3.98% in Q3, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

• Oil sector growth accelerated to 6.79%, while the non-oil sector expanded 3.99% and contributed 97.13% to total GDP.

• Foreign reserves reached $50.45 billion in mid-February 2026, while inflation fell to 15.10% in January 2026 from a 28-year high of 34.19% in June 2024.

Nigeria’s real GDP grew 4.07% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared with 3.98% in the previous quarter, according to a report published on February 27 by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The growth rate also exceeded the 3.76% recorded in the same period of 2024.

During the period under review, the agricultural sector expanded 4%, compared with 2.54% a year earlier. The industrial sector grew 3.88%, compared with 2.49% in the corresponding period of 2024. However, the services sector slowed to 4.15%, down from 4.75% in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.07% (year-on-year) in real terms in Q4 2025. This growth rate is higher than the 3.76% recorded in Q4 2024.

During the quarter under review, agriculture grew by 4.00%, an improvement from the 2.54% recorded in the corresponding quarter of… pic.twitter.com/B14ouHoHoE

— NBS Nigeria (@NBS_Nigeria) February 27, 2026

Oil sector growth accelerated to 6.79% in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared with 5.84% in the previous quarter. The sector also gained 4.71 percentage points relative to the same period of 2024. Average daily crude oil production reached 1.58 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared with 1.54 million barrels per day in 2024. However, production declined from 1.64 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2025.

“The oil sector contributed 2.87% to total real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025, up from the corresponding period of 2024 (2.80%), but down from the previous quarter (3.44%),” the NBS stated.

Meanwhile, the non-oil sector grew 3.99%, compared with 3.91% in the third quarter of 2025. The sector recorded a 0.19 percentage point increase compared with the same quarter of 2024. The non-oil sector accounted for 97.13% of national GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025. Agriculture, information and communication, real estate, trade and financial and insurance services primarily drove this performance.

An Economy Regaining Momentum

This growth comes as macroeconomic conditions improve. The local currency, the naira, appreciated as foreign exchange reserves accumulated. Reserves reached $50.45 billion as of February 16, 2026, marking their highest level in 13 years and covering 9.68 months of goods and services imports. In addition, inflation, which reached a 28-year high of 34.19% in June 2024, fell to 15.10% in January 2026.

The federal government projects economic growth of 4.68% in 2026, compared with 3.87% in 2025. Authorities expect easing inflation, improved exchange rate stability and continued structural reforms to support this outlook. This forecast slightly exceeds the 4.4% growth projection of the International Monetary Fund.

Lydie Mobio