• The IMF said Guinea-Bissau met 7 out of 10 performance criteria under its $53.14 million Extended Credit Facility (ECF) agreement.

• Fiscal pressures mounted in 2025 due to lower-than-expected revenues and higher spending in the first half of the year.

• The IMF forecasts 5.5% GDP growth in 2025, driven by strong cashew output and improved trade terms.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Guinea-Bissau delivered mixed results under its $53.14 million Extended Credit Facility (ECF) program, urging the government to intensify reforms to sustain progress. The findings were published in a statement released on October 6, 2025.

During the ninth review of the program, the IMF noted that although the country achieved some progress, overall performance remains uneven. “Seven out of ten Quantitative Performance Criteria (QPC) for June 2025 were met. The QPC on the wage bill was missed by a small margin. The zero ceiling on non-regularized expenditures (DNT) and the QPC on other common expenditures were also breached. Nonetheless, the authorities continue to make progress with regard to the structural benchmarks, albeit with some delays."

The IMF warned that Guinea-Bissau’s 2025 budget faces significant strain due to revenue shortfalls and spending overruns in the first half of the year. It called on authorities to pursue structural reforms aimed at achieving inclusive growth and economic diversification.

The Fund urged the government to focus on governance, anti-corruption measures, infrastructure, and the energy sector. On fiscal policy, it recommended rationalizing tax exemptions, modernizing the tax administration, and improving implementation of the new value-added tax (VAT).

Despite fiscal challenges, Guinea-Bissau’s economic recovery remains strong. The IMF projects GDP growth of 5.5% in 2025, “driven by robust cashew nut production and improved terms of trade.”

Following this review, the country is expected to receive a new disbursement of $3.2 million under the ECF program.

This article was initially published in French by Ingrid Haffiny (intern)

Adapted in English by Ange Jason Quenum