• Morocco forecasts economic growth rising to 5.6% in 2026

• Outlook driven by agriculture rebound and resilient non-farm activity

• Inflation seen low at 0.8%, external deficit expected to widen

Bank Al-Maghrib, Morocco's central bank, said on Tuesday that economic growth is expected to accelerate to 5.6% in 2026, up from an estimated 4.8% the previous year.

The forecast followed a board meeting held on March 17 in Rabat. The stronger outlook rests on the resilience of non-agricultural activity and an expected rebound in farm output, supported by favorable weather conditions. The bank said the harvest of the three main cereals could reach 82 million quintals, pushing agricultural value added up 14.4% in 2026.

The bank forecast inflation at 0.8% in 2026, before rising to 1.4% in 2027. The projection reflects the recent decline in fuel prices and improved supply of certain food products. Growth is expected to slow to 3.5% in 2027.

"On external accounts, the projected rise in commodity prices should lead to a widening of the current account deficit from 2.3% of GDP in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, before narrowing to 2.5% in 2027," the bank said in a statement. The projections come against a backdrop of heightened global uncertainty, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine.

Despite those pressures, the export outlook remains positive, supported by expected growth in automotive and phosphate sales, along with continued increases in tourism receipts and remittances from Moroccans abroad, the central bank said.

Official foreign exchange reserves are expected to keep rising, reaching 482 billion dirhams ($51.3 billion), the equivalent of nearly six months of import cover, by 2027.

Charlène N’dimon