• Government begins third 100-day performance review on April 20, 2026
• GDP growth projected to rise from 9.2% to 10.2%
• Industry, services and agriculture expected to sustain expansion under reform agenda

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has launched Ethiopia’s third 100-day government performance review on April 20, 2026, alongside a broader assessment of economic performance over the past nine months. According to the Prime Minister, the exercise is part of an ongoing monitoring framework aimed at tracking progress under the country’s economic reform agenda. He indicated that Ethiopia’s economy is currently expanding at 9.2%, with authorities targeting an increase to 10.2% in the coming year.

Sectoral growth targets outlined during the review include 7.9% for agriculture, 13.2% for industry and 9.3% for services, reflecting continued reliance on industrial output and services expansion to sustain overall economic growth.

The current assessment builds on a previous review conducted by the Council of Ministers in October 2025, which also recorded 9.2% annual GDP growth, supported by expansion across agriculture, industry and services.

This morning, we begin the third 100-day review of government performance for the past year alongside a comprehensive assessment of the past nine months.

We have moved away from an economy once characterized by a weak institutional and political framework that was not conducive… pic.twitter.com/7LQyOmIYic

— Abiy Ahmed Ali ?? (@AbiyAhmedAli) April 20, 2026

Ethiopia’s growth strategy is anchored in its Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda, first introduced in 2020 and revised under a second phase in 2024. According to the reform document, the program was designed to address longstanding structural constraints, including limited private sector participation, weak regulatory frameworks, low productivity and inefficiencies in state-owned enterprises, many of which were burdened by high debt levels.

The revised framework places emphasis on macroeconomic stability, improving the business environment, enhancing competitiveness and gradually shifting the economy toward a more private sector-led growth model. It also prioritizes sector-specific interventions aimed at increasing productivity in agriculture, expanding industrial capacity and accelerating the development of services, including trade, transport and digital activities.

According to government data, the country has demonstrated resilience despite climate-related shocks affecting agricultural output, as well as broader macroeconomic constraints including foreign exchange shortages and inflationary pressures.

Sustaining growth above 10% is viewed by authorities as critical to supporting job creation, maintaining public investment momentum and advancing structural transformation. The emphasis on sectoral growth targets also reflects efforts to balance traditional reliance on agriculture with increased contributions from industry and services.

Ethiopia’s economic structure is gradually shifting toward a more diversified model. Data from the October 2025 government review indicate that services accounted for 39.6% of GDP, followed by agriculture at 31.3% and industry at 30.2%, highlighting the growing importance of non-agricultural sectors.

Growth in the services sector has been supported by expanding trade activity, transport services, tourism flows and the development of the digital economy. Government data also point to increased financial sector activity, with loan disbursements rising by 113% year-on-year and digital financial transactions reaching 6.5 trillion birr ($41.63 billion at current US dollar value) within a three-month period.

On the external front, commodity exports reached $2.5 billion, exceeding both targets and previous performance, while large-scale projects such as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, along with investments in fertilizer production and gas development, are expected to further support growth.

Ethiopia’s economic indicators from recent government assessments show:
The economy is currently growing at 9.2%, with projections of 10.2% in the next fiscal period. Agriculture is expected to expand by 7.9%, industry by 13.2%, and services by 9.3%. Sectoral contributions to GDP stand at 31.3% for agriculture, 30.2% for industry and 39.6% for services.

Despite strong growth figures, structural challenges remain. The reform document highlights persistent issues including low productivity levels, limited competitiveness of the private sector and the continued dominance of state-owned enterprises in key sectors.

The economy also remains vulnerable to climate variability, particularly in agriculture, while foreign exchange constraints continue to affect import capacity and industrial inputs. Inflationary pressures and global economic uncertainties further complicate the growth outlook.

The ongoing reform agenda identifies several opportunities to sustain growth momentum. Expanding private sector participation, improving regulatory efficiency and increasing investment in industrial and agricultural value chains are central to the government’s strategy. Growth in the services sector, particularly in digital finance and logistics, presents additional opportunities, supported by rising transaction volumes and increased financial sector activity. Large-scale infrastructure and energy projects are also expected to enhance productivity and support long-term economic expansion.

Key areas to monitor include the outcome of the current performance review, particularly whether sectoral growth targets are maintained or revised. Implementation progress under the second phase of the Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda will also be closely watched, along with developments in major infrastructure and industrial projects.

Attention will also focus on whether macroeconomic pressures, including inflation and foreign exchange constraints, ease sufficiently to support the government’s target of double-digit growth.

By Cynthia Ebot Takang