• Kamoa-Kakula lowers its 2026 copper production forecast to 330,000 tonnes from an initial 420,000 tonnes target.
• Operator Ivanhoe Mines adopts a cautious strategy after a 2025 seismic incident disrupted operations.
• The project still targets output above 500,000 tonnes annually from 2028.

Kamoa-Kakula, the largest copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, has revised down its production outlook for 2026. A seismic incident in 2025 slowed the project’s ramp-up and reduced annual output, delaying its goal of reaching 500,000 tonnes per year.

Ivanhoe Mines announced on Tuesday, March 31 that the mine will produce up to 330,000 tonnes of copper in 2026. This forecast falls significantly below the initial target of 420,000 tonnes for the year.

The company has adopted a more cautious operating strategy following last year’s disruptions. It plans to focus on mine development work and infrastructure strengthening over the coming years to ensure stable and sustainable production in the long term.

Under this approach, output should recover after 2026 and reach between 380,000 and 420,000 tonnes in 2027. The mine then aims to exceed the record threshold of 500,000 tonnes annually from 2028.

“During the past year, the Kamoa Copper team made significant efforts to safeguard the Kakula mine after a difficult 2025 […]. Although prudent base-case assumptions affect production levels in 2026 and 2027, we are preparing Kamoa-Kakula to achieve new production records from 2028 […] with targets exceeding 500,000 tonnes of copper anodes and blister copper over several decades,” said Marna Cloete, president of Ivanhoe Mines.

At this stage, the impact of this strategy on the complex’s revenues remains unclear. This uncertainty comes as copper prices have declined in recent weeks, with Trading Economics estimating a drop of about 10% in March.

In 2025, the mine still increased its revenues to $3.11 billion, supported by favorable prices, despite a decline in sales volumes.

Kamoa-Kakula has also achieved a key milestone with the commissioning of its smelter. Until now, the site sold its production as concentrate.

The new facility now processes concentrate into copper anodes, a higher value-added product that serves as the new reference for reported output volumes.

Ivanhoe Mines holds a 39.6% stake in the project, while China’s Zijin Mining holds an equal share. The Congolese state controls the remaining 20%.

This article was initially published in French by Aurel Sèdjro Houenou

Adapted in English by Ange J.A de Berry Quenum