• Platinum prices rise 30% amid widening supply deficit

• Investor demand surges while mining output declines

• Market expected to remain in deficit despite softer demand

Platinum prices have risen sharply in early 2026, averaging $2,206 per ounce in the first quarter, up 30% from the previous quarter, according to the World Bank’s April Commodities Price report. The increase comes amid a persistent market deficit that has more than doubled the metal’s price over the past year.

According to the Platinum Quarterly Q4 2025 report published in March by the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), the global platinum deficit reached 1.08 million ounces in 2025, up from 921,000 ounces a year earlier. The widening gap is largely driven by strong investor interest, with demand surging 65% year over year, while jewelry demand rose 9%, its strongest performance since 2018.

On the supply side, global mine production fell 4% in 2025, partly offset by a 10% increase in recycling. South Africa, the world’s leading producer, is expected to maintain output in 2026, supported by initial production from Ivanhoe Mines’ Platreef project, which began operations in the fourth quarter of 2025. Russian output, however, is projected to decline, weighed down in part by the withdrawal of Western equipment suppliers.

Despite an expected 8% drop in total demand in 2026, the market is still projected to remain in deficit, estimated at 240,000 ounces, according to the WPIC. These conditions are likely to keep prices elevated. Rohit Savant of CPM Group forecasts an average price of $1,954 per ounce for 2026, within a range of $1,400 to $2,800, noting that strong momentum in precious metals supports prices in the short term, though gradual normalization remains likely.

For South African producers, higher prices are translating into stronger financial results. Valterra Platinum, spun off from Anglo American and the world’s top producer by sales value, reported a 68% year-over-year increase in EBITDA. For now, however, mining companies appear to be prioritizing shareholder returns over new project investments.

Emiliano Tossou