• DRC extended its cobalt export ban to September 2025 due to high stock levels.
• Major producers like CMOC face delivery issues; supply risks remain but demand stays strong.
• Prices are volatile around $32,000/ton; future depends on DRC’s supply strategy.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) extended its cobalt export embargo for an additional three months at the end of June. The ban, initially imposed in February 2025, remains in place due to "persistently high stock levels on the market," according to the Regulatory Authority for the Control of Strategic Mineral Substances Markets (ARECOMS). This analysis is shared by Will Talbot of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, who spoke with Ecofin Agency.

"Our analysis shows that, although there is a risk of a physical supply shortage outside the DRC, it is unlikely to be felt before the end of 2026," explained Talbot, who heads research at the London-based firm specializing in critical minerals.

Responding to questions from the editorial team, he noted that some traders and producers could still face difficulties before then. This is already true for certain companies operating in the DRC, such as Eurasian Resources Group, which declared force majeure on cobalt deliveries from its Congolese Metalkol plant as early as March. China's CMOC, the world's largest cobalt producer and majority-owned by Kazakh investors, recently joined them. On June 30, CMOC's trading subsidiary IXM also declared a force majeure on its cobalt supply contracts.

While some analysts warn of a potential withdrawal by industrial buyers from Congolese cobalt, or even from cobalt altogether, if the embargo continues, Benchmark remains more cautious. According to Talbot, battery chemistry is unlikely to change significantly.

"Benchmark projects that 43 percent of lithium-ion battery demand in 2025 will involve chemistries containing cobalt. While the market share of LFP (lithium iron phosphate) is expected to grow, NCM (lithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt) will remain important, especially in Western markets. There is room for both chemistries in the market," he stated.

As the current embargo is set to expire in September, the DRC has not yet clarified its next steps. So far, potential alternatives include introducing export quotas and increasing local processing. Kinshasa implemented the suspension in response to falling prices. Notably, cobalt prices reached about $36,000 per ton in London in mid-March, up from around $21,000 at the end of February.

The metal's price currently fluctuates around $32,000, and Benchmark expects this volatility to persist in the short term. In the medium to long term, price trends and consumer interest will depend on the DRC's ability to balance restricted supply, which supports prices, with sufficient availability to prevent battery makers from accelerating the shift toward alternative chemistries.

Emiliano Tossou