• Africa’s energy & mining exports benefit from US tariff exemptions, cushioning trade as most other sectors face sharp contraction in 2025.
• Power, gas, oil and critical minerals post strong growth, contrasting with steep declines in agrifood and industrial exports.
• Institutions urge using AfCFTA to turn energy gains into regional value chains, integration and leverage in post-AGOA talks.

Africa’s energy and mining sectors are emerging as rare beneficiaries of the 2025 US tariff regime, positioning the continent’s resource base as a strategic buffer at a time when most export sectors face contraction. According to a joint report by the UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the African Union Commission (AUC), exemptions granted to energy commodities linked to US strategic interests are shielding parts of Africa’s export portfolio from the full impact of rising protectionism.

While Africa’s overall exports to the United States are projected to decline sharply, energy-related trade stands out. Electricity exports are forecast to grow by between 41.9% and 51.9%, gas exports by 35% to 48%, and crude oil exports by 15.5% to 20.7%. Critical minerals, grouped under non-iron metals, could register export growth of 35.9% to 41.3%. This contrasts starkly with agrifood exports, projected to fall by up to 30%, and industrial products, where losses could exceed 70% under the new tariff scenarios.

For continental institutions, this divergence represents more than a temporary anomaly. The ECA, AfDB and AUC argue that the energy windfall must be deliberately integrated into the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to avoid reinforcing Africa’s traditional role as a supplier of raw materials. They emphasise the need to channel energy revenues and infrastructure into regional value chains that support downstream manufacturing, particularly in tariff-exposed sectors such as agro-processing, pharmaceuticals and light industry.

Energy market integration is identified as a critical enabler of this strategy. Even under adverse global trade conditions, intra-African energy trade is projected to increase modestly by 0.04%, signalling the latent potential of a continental energy market. AfDB-supported power pools, cross-border electricity transmission lines, gas pipelines and shared storage infrastructure are increasingly framed as AfCFTA instruments—capable of lowering production costs, easing non-tariff barriers and improving the competitiveness of African manufacturers.

The report also highlights the strategic implications for Africa’s external trade negotiations. Despite US claims of “trade injustice,” Africa runs a trade deficit with the United States in both goods (approximately $1.6 billion) and services (around $6.6 billion), underscoring its position as a net buyer rather than a systemic threat. Continued US dependence on African energy and minerals, the institutions argue, gives the continent leverage to pursue coordinated, post-AGOA trade discussions—provided African states negotiate collectively through the African Union rather than bilaterally.

However, the cushioning effect of energy exemptions is uneven across the continent. Libya is described as being “nearly untouched” by the tariffs due to the dominance of crude oil in its exports. Nigeria, Angola and Ghana face weighted average tariff increases of just 0.8% to 2.6%, compared with a continental average of 7.1%. While this insulation benefits resource-rich economies, it also reinforces the urgency of using AfCFTA mechanisms—such as rules of origin, regional industrial hubs and energy services liberalisation—to spread gains more broadly.

Recent developments support this institutional outlook. Analysis from African Energy Week 2026 points to shifting global energy dynamics, particularly the European Union’s phased exit from Russian gas, as a new source of demand for African producers. The EU’s ban on Russian LNG and pipeline gas opens strategic space for suppliers from North, West and East Africa, creating opportunities to attract long-term investment that supports both exports and intra-African energy trade.

Governments are already responding by deepening regional integration. Nigeria’s Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment reported intra-African trade of ₦4.82 trillion ($3.1 billion) in the first half of 2025, attributing the increase to tariff concessions under AfCFTA schedules designed to cushion external shocks. Similarly, African leaders at recent US–Africa business forums have called for investment-led partnerships, tariff reviews and diversification beyond extractives, signalling growing political awareness of the risks of over-dependence on external markets.

As 2026 begins, the central question is whether Africa’s energy boom will remain an enclave advantage or evolve into the backbone of continental integration. With energy exports expanding at double-digit rates while most other sectors contract, the window for action is narrow but significant. If effectively anchored in AfCFTA implementation—through integrated energy markets, regional value chains and collective trade diplomacy—Africa’s energy surge could do more than offset global protectionism: it could help reshape the continent’s long-term trade resilience and industrial trajectory.

By Cynthia Ebot Takang