After two decades of unsuccessful efforts to revive its state-owned refineries, Nigeria may be heading toward selling them. The head of NNPC, appointed just a few months ago to get the plants back on track, now admits the overhaul is proving far more complex than initially expected.

Nigeria is now openly considering the sale of its state-owned oil refineries. Bayo Ojulari, the newly appointed head of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), made this announcement in an interview with Bloomberg on the sidelines of the 9th OPEC seminar in Vienna.

"Sale is not out of the question. All the options are on the table, to be frank, but that decision will be based on the outcome of the reviews we're doing now," Ojulari said. He noted that a strategic review of the company’s refining activities is underway and expected to be completed by year-end.

His comments mark a turning point. For years, Nigerian authorities have repeatedly promised to revive the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries. Yet, according to a 2023 parliamentary report, nearly $25 billion was invested between 2003 and 2023 with no lasting results.

Despite several public announcements of progress, the outcomes have been disappointing. Port Harcourt, relaunched at the end of 2024 after a $1.5 billion overhaul, was shut down again in May 2025. Warri, which had resumed operations at 60% of its capacity, is also idle following a major technical failure. In Kaduna, rehabilitation work is still ongoing.

Ojulari admitted that the technical complexity has exceeded expectations. Some of the new technologies introduced are incompatible with outdated equipment, and he conceded the facilities have been dormant for far too long.

His assessment echoed that of Aliko Dangote, who recently stated it is unrealistic to modernize these plants without starting from scratch. Investing in them, he argued, is like trying to drive a 40-year-old car using modern parts.

A Crucial Test for the NNPC

Appointed in April 2025 by President Bola Tinubu, Ojulari, a former Shell executive, was meant to symbolize a new era for NNPC. His mandate includes reviving oil production, modernizing the state oil giant, and most critically, restoring the country’s public refining capacity.

Less than four months into the job, one of his core missions is already in doubt. The setback speaks volumes about the sector’s entrenched dysfunctions: poor technical choices, flawed governance, and recurring corruption scandals.

For Ojulari, this is a defining test. He is preparing NNPC for a potential initial public offering by 2028. However, success will depend on showing that the company can make tough decisions, move past years of waste, and refocus its efforts on high-yield projects, particularly in the gas sector.

NNPC had set ambitious targets to produce 200,000 barrels of refined products per day by 2027 and 500,000 by 2030. With this latest shift, those goals now appear increasingly out of reach.

Olivier de Souza