• Shell moves forward with onshore and ultra-deep offshore exploration in Africa

• Company signs deal in Libya and gains drilling approval off South Africa

• Operations continue in unstable legal and political environments

As competitors like TotalEnergies, Eni, and BP reduce their presence in Africa’s upstream oil and gas sector, Shell is choosing a different path. The Anglo-Dutch energy group is pushing ahead with high-risk exploration and development, including deepwater drilling and the restart of inactive onshore fields.

On July 8, Shell signed a memorandum of understanding to relaunch an onshore oil field in Libya. Just days later, on Friday, July 11, it received approval to conduct ultra-deepwater drilling in the Orange Basin, off the coast of South Africa.

While the two moves may seem unrelated, they reflect Shell’s targeted strategy to stay active in Africa’s upstream sector, even in politically or legally uncertain environments.

Libya: Operating amid institutional instability

Shell’s return to onshore oil in Libya comes at a time when the country’s oil production is still vulnerable to disruption. Over the past year, major fields such as El-Sharara (300,000 barrels per day) and El-Feel have faced repeated shutdowns due to local protests and political unrest.

In late August 2024, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) said these stoppages led to a loss of about 63% of Libya’s daily output, which had reached 1.2 million barrels per day before the closures.

Tensions escalated in early September, when a disagreement between the NOC and the Central Bank of Libya over oil revenue management led to the cancellation of several crude shipments. Port data cited by local media showed exports falling from around 1 million barrels per day to under 180,000 in just one week — an 80% drop.

In January 2025, the NOC also underwent a leadership change. Farhat Bengdara was replaced by Massoud Suleman as interim chairman. Suleman pledged to improve transparency, including ending controversial oil-for-fuel swap deals that have long faced criticism for their lack of clarity.

All this is happening in a fragile political climate, marked by competing executive authorities and ongoing disputes over control of oil resources.

South Africa: Legal uncertainty surrounds offshore drilling

In South Africa, Shell has received permission to drill in the offshore Orange Basin, but the regulatory landscape remains unclear. The company is still facing legal challenges linked to earlier exploration efforts.

One major case stems from a 2021 seismic survey off the Wild Coast, which was blocked by the Makhanda High Court in 2022 over inadequate consultation with local communities. In June 2024, the Supreme Court of Appeal partly overturned that decision.

The appellate court ruled that the Department of Mineral Resources acted within its powers in granting the permit, but acknowledged that the public consultation process had been flawed. The court ordered new steps to ensure compliance with public participation rules under South African law. The case is still under review by the Constitutional Court.

Shell’s approach stands in contrast to that of some of its peers, such as TotalEnergies, which have taken a more cautious stance in parts of the African market. In March 2024, Shell also relaxed some of its own climate commitments by postponing certain emissions reduction targets.