• Shenghe takes full control of Ngualla, buying Peak Rare Earths for A$195m and securing 100% of future output.
• China tightens grip on NdPr supply, undercutting Western diversification plans as global demand from EVs and wind ramps up.
• Tanzania gains equity and royalties, but local job creation and value capture remain uncertain under Shenghe’s ownership.

Chinese miner Shenghe Resources will acquire the 80.3% of Peak Rare Earths Ltd. it does not already own, paying A$195 million ($128 million) to take full control of the Ngualla project in Tanzania. The deal received court approval on Sept. 19 and is set to close by Sept. 30, with Peak to be delisted from the Australian Securities Exchange on Oct. 1.

Ngualla is expected to produce about 37,200 tons of concentrate annually for more than 20 years, yielding roughly 1,800 tons of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxides. These materials are vital for permanent magnets used in most electric-vehicle motors. With China already refining about 90% of global NdPr, the project’s output is almost certain to flow through Chinese-controlled separation plants, with exports likely routed via Dar es Salaam.

Price implications remain contested. A recent projection suggested NdPr could stabilize around $57–58/kg by the end of the decade, but most bank and consultant forecasts still point to $70–80/kg as demand from EVs and wind accelerates and Chinese export quotas tighten. What is clear is that Shenghe now has physical control of one of the few fully permitted, financed deposits outside China.

Tanzania retains a 16% free-carried interest and will collect a 3% gross-revenue royalty. Peak’s 2022 impact statement projected 220 direct jobs and about 1,000 indirect roles, but Shenghe has not yet presented its workforce plan. Local mining law requires at least 60% domestic hiring for non-managerial positions, though the extent of expatriate involvement in technical jobs won’t be known until contracts are awarded.

The transaction highlights China’s ability to move capital more quickly than rivals. A last-minute U.S.-backed bid valued at A$240 million was rejected earlier in September because financing was conditional. Shenghe’s all-cash offer, though smaller, came fully funded and pre-cleared by regulators in Tanzania and Australia.

The deal feeds into broader concerns over China’s growing influence in Africa’s resource sector. Claims that Chinese firms have captured about 60% of new African mining investment since 2023 circulate widely, though no authoritative database confirms the figure. What is clear is that Beijing’s state-linked firms continue to outpace Western competitors hampered by longer approval processes and stricter ESG conditions.

By absorbing Ngualla, Shenghe strengthens its grip on the rare-earth supply chain and sidelines a deposit once seen as a potential pillar of Western diversification. For Tanzania, the benefits hinge on execution—royalties are guaranteed, but local value capture remains uncertain. For global markets, the message is blunt: in Africa’s mining rush, speed of capital often outweighs the size of the bid.

Idriss Linge