• Cobalt prices more than doubled in 2025, while copper rose over 40%, with supply-demand balance expected to guide 2026 pricing.
• DRC plans annual cobalt export quotas of 96,600 tonnes for 2026-2027, half of 2024 levels, following a lift of the 2025 export embargo.
• Copper supply risks from DRC’s Kamoa-Kakula mine and global incidents, combined with strong demand from AI and renewable energy, are likely to support prices despite forecasts of market balance.

Cobalt prices exceeded $56,000 per tonne in January 2026, more than doubling from the previous year. The increase followed a multi-month export embargo imposed by the DRC in February 2025 to curb international market surplus.

Previously, global production surges from Indonesia and China’s CMOC in the DRC created oversupply, pushing cobalt from a 2022 peak of $82,000 per tonne to roughly $20,000 per tonne in February 2025.

In October 2025, authorities lifted the embargo and introduced annual quotas. Kinshasa set 2026-2027 cobalt export quotas at 96,600 tonnes, roughly half of 2024 volumes. Initial shipments are expected to reach China, the primary destination, by the end of Q1 2026.

CMOC maintains cobalt production guidance for 2026 between 100,000 and 120,000 tonnes, following a 2025 record of 117,549 tonnes. Its current export quota for 2026 stands at 31,200 tonnes. Analysts at Fastmarkets expect the new volumes to ease market tension and lower prices, although they anticipate a 10,700-tonne supply deficit for the year.

Copper: Supply Risks and Deficit Concerns

The DRC did not restrict copper exports in 2025, but production issues contributed to price gains. Kamoa-Kakula, the country’s largest copper mine operated by Ivanhoe Mines, delivered 388,838 tonnes in 2025, below the projected 520,000 tonnes, following a seismic incident in May. The company projects a maximum of 420,000 tonnes for 2026.

Global supply pressures include disruptions at Grasberg in Indonesia, the world’s second-largest copper mine. Market concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper further supported prices, pushing three-month LME contracts above $13,407 per tonne in mid-January 2026—a record high.

Copper demand remains strong, fueled by AI infrastructure, datacenters, and renewable energy deployment. Despite upward price drivers, BMI and Goldman Sachs project cautious 2026 averages: BMI forecasts $11,000 per tonne, and Goldman Sachs anticipates $10,000–$11,000 per tonne. Goldman Sachs notes, “Although our modest surplus of 160 kt in 2026 brings the market closer to balance, we do not foresee a global copper shortage in the near term.”

Cobalt prices will remain highly sensitive to DRC policy, while copper prices depend more on global supply factors. Export volumes in 2026 will directly influence national revenues. DRC Ministry of Mines data show copper exports fell 17% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025.

This article was initially published in French by Emiliano Tossou

Adapted in English by Ange Jason Quenum