• NNPC fails to deliver petrol despite $2.4B spent on refinery rehab

• Dangote’s refinery supplies bulk of fuel but operates below full capacity

• Fuel imports persist, costing Nigeria $9.63B in 2024

Despite investing around $2.4 billion since 2021 to revive public refineries, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) has failed to supply petrol to the local market. Six months after their official restart, the refineries in Port Harcourt and Warri are still not producing usable volumes of petrol.

Nigeria, Africa’s top crude oil producer, remains heavily reliant on fuel imports. This structural shortfall has placed the Dangote refinery, the country's only operational private facility, at the forefront of petrol supply, amid ongoing inefficiencies in the public sector.

Official data from March 2025 show that the Port Harcourt refinery produced no petrol. The Warri plant only yielded naphta, while diesel output from Port Harcourt remains insufficient to meet nationwide demand, which is estimated at 50 million liters per day.

The Dangote refinery, with a theoretical refining capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, currently supplies over 20 million liters of petrol. An additional 25.19 million liters are imported daily, collectively covering 90% of domestic demand. However, Dangote’s output remains below its designed capacity.

Access to Dangote’s supply is limited. The Association of Petroleum Product Depot Owners (PETROAN), representing more than 6,700 stations, claims that the refinery sells only to select partners through its own terminals. The Petroleum Product Distributors Association (DAPPMAN) echoes this concern, citing restricted distribution.

Amid the persistent shortfall, PETROAN has demanded transparency regarding public refinery progress and called for exact timelines for upcoming project phases. In response to mounting pressure, NNPC's new managing director, appointed in early April, dismissed the leadership of all four state-owned refineries by the end of that month.

Despite these efforts, Nigeria's petrol import bill hit $9.63 billion in 2024, according to the national statistics bureau, a stark contrast to the objectives of the refinery rehabilitation program.