• Gabon targets 9.2% non-oil growth in 2026 amid oil decline
• Infrastructure, LNG, mining, and agro sectors drive diversification push
• Stability holds, but fiscal pressure and reform needs remain high
  

After decades of dependence on crude oil, Gabon is seeking to reshape its economy, targeting non-oil growth of 9.2% in 2026 — nearly triple the current rate.

Official forecasts suggest this expansion could lift overall economic growth to 7.9%, up from 3.4% in 2024. It’s an ambitious goal for an economy long powered by oil but now facing declining output from aging fields. While the oil sector still grew 3.1% in 2024 thanks to targeted investment, production is expected to contract by 3% in 2026, underlining the urgency of finding new growth drivers.

The construction and public works sector is emerging as Gabon’s main engine of growth. Backed by major infrastructure projects, the sector expanded by 48% in 2024 and is projected to surge more than 78% in 2026, according to official data. Roads, schools, universities, hospitals, housing, and public buildings are all under rapid development.

Flagship projects such as the Cité Émeraude urban renewal program capture this ambition, while upgrades to the railway network aim to improve the movement of timber, manganese, and manufactured goods. The goal is to open access to production zones and attract new investment.

Local transformation and industrialization

Libreville is also pushing for greater local processing of natural resources. In energy, the key project is the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) plant in Port-Gentil, due in 2026 — a 560 billion CFA franc investment led by Perenco and the Gabon Oil Company (GOC).

The mining sector follows a similar path, with initial output expected from the Baniaka iron and Etéké gold projects, alongside expanded manganese processing. The goal is to move up the value chain and reduce reliance on raw exports.

Agriculture and fisheries are also expected to expand by 5.9% in 2026, driven by revived palm oil production and programs under the Strategic Agricultural Fund (FSA). These initiatives aim to strengthen food security and boost non-oil exports.

Fragile but steady stability

Macroeconomic conditions remain relatively stable. Inflation stood at 1.2% in 2024, and public debt at 56.3% of GDP, levels consistent with CEMAC convergence targets.

Still, challenges persist — notably delayed payments and a heavy public-sector wage bill that limits fiscal space. The government must balance its investment ambitions with budget discipline.

The Directorate General of the Economy and Fiscal Policy (DGEFP) expects that by 2026, stronger growth could generate jobs, reduce poverty, and make development more inclusive. Officials describe this as a decisive shift toward a more resilient, less oil-dependent economy.

The key question, however, is whether this long-promised diversification — so often delayed in the past — will finally take hold. Success will depend not only on investment, but also on better governance and renewed private-sector confidence.

SG