• Libya raised oil production to 1.38 million barrels per day in August 2025 and aims to reach 2 million b/d in the short and medium term.

• The European Union cut Russian crude imports from 29% in 2021 to 2% in early 2025, opening space for new suppliers.

• Libya signed deals with BP, Shell, and ExxonMobil in mid-2025 to expand oil field development and boost exports.

 Libya is ramping up oil production as it targets 2 million barrels per day in the short and medium term. Authorities are intensifying efforts despite chronic structural weaknesses in the sector.

Local media reported that output reached 1.38 million barrels per day on Sunday, August 24, compared with 1.22 million b/d in October 2024. The increase strengthens Libya’s hand in the European market, where demand for alternatives to Russian crude is rising.

Eurostat data shows Russia’s share of EU oil imports plunged from 29% in 2021 to just 2% in the first quarter of 2025. The United States now supplies 15%, followed by Norway at 13.5% and Kazakhstan at 12.7%.

In this new balance, Libya’s growth offers Europe another source of crude at a moment when refineries seek security and diversification.

Libyan crude is light and low in sulfur, qualities European refineries prefer. The U.S. Energy Information Administration notes strong demand from Italy, Spain, and France in particular.

To capitalize on this demand, Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) accelerated partnerships in 2025. In July and August, it signed memoranda of understanding with BP, Shell, and ExxonMobil to develop new oil fields and expand exports.

Europe’s shift from Russian oil presents Libya with a clear opening. But industry observers warn that instability could derail gains. In 2024, blockades slashed daily production by up to 700,000 b/d and forced cargo cancellations.

Analysts say Libya’s ability to seize this moment depends on keeping production steady, securing foreign capital, and containing domestic political tensions. The success or failure of these efforts will determine whether Libya cements a long-term position in Europe’s energy market.

This article was initially published in French by Abdel-Latif Boureima
Edited in English by Ange Jason Quenum