• Rhino's Volans-1X well is at target depth in PEL 85; results are expected within coming four to six weeks.

• Capricornus-1X flowed 11,000 bbl/day of 37° API crude, and Volans-1X sits 15 km northwest seeking a similar reservoir.

• Rhino operates the block with Azule, NAMCOR, and Korres; success could fast-track development and shape Namibia's oil future.

The outcome of Rhino Resources Ltd.’s Volans-1X exploration well, now at target depth in offshore block PEL 85, is expected within the next four to six weeks. Drilled from the Deepsea Mira semi-submersible, the probe is the first follow-up to April’s Capricornus-1X discovery, where a controlled drill-stem test produced just over 11,000 barrels per day of 37° API crude from a Lower Cretaceous channel sand.

Volans-1X sits roughly fifteen kilometres northwest of Capricornus and targets a look-alike seismic amplitude anomaly that Rhino believes belongs to the same depositional fairway; confirmation—or refutation—of that correlation will decide whether Namibia has a single lucky find or the makings of a multi-field hub. Rhino, a privately held South African company, operates PEL 85 in partnership with Azule Energy (the BP/Eni joint venture), state-owned NAMCOR, and local partner Korres Investments.

A successful Volans result would enable the partnership to proceed directly to integrated concept screening and, in parallel, accelerate negotiations with the finance ministry over a production-sharing agreement that has yet to be finalized. Failure would put the block back into pure appraisal mode and almost certainly push any development decision beyond 2030.

The stakes extend well beyond one licence area. Namibia’s Petroleum Commissioner, Maggy Shino, told an industry briefing in Windhoek on 26 August that the national oil-in-place estimate remains “in the order of eleven billion barrels.” Still, she stressed that the figure is an un-risked resource estimate rather than booked reserves.

Speaking at the same event, Mines and Energy Deputy Minister Kornelia Shilunga reiterated the ministry’s projection that first oil could earn the treasury N$7.7 billion (about US$420 million) annually once production reaches 200,000 barrels per day—roughly the plateau level assumed in the government’s fiscal model. Those revenues would arrive just as diamond royalties, currently the most significant single contributor to mining, begin a scheduled decline. Yet the timetable is tight.

Commissioner Shino confirmed that TotalEnergies aims to take a final investment decision (FID) on its Venus discovery—located 60 kilometres south-east of Capricornus—by late 2026, with first oil targeted for 2029-30. That schedule presupposes regulatory clarity by mid-2026, including the long-awaited update to Namibia’s 1991 petroleum legislation and the publication of a revised fiscal regime.

TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné told investors in July that he is “ready to move, but only once the rules are clear,” a stance widely interpreted as a warning against contractual surprises. Infrastructure is evolving in step with the policy calendar. Walvis Bay has already handled 16 heavy-lift shipments of casing and subsea trees this year; Baker Hughes is building a dedicated mud plant, and Namport has received environmental clearance for a new 14-hectare energy quay.

By contrast, plans for a specialised oil-and-gas supply base at Lüderitz were shelved in August after the tender process failed to attract compliant bids. Officials insist the Lüderitz option remains “on the table” but concede that any new call for proposals is unlikely before 2026. Rhino’s chief executive, Travis Smithard, says the company will release full wireline and fluid data within days of reaching total depth, a transparency pledge designed to reassure both investors and civil society that the resource is real.

Independent analysts caution that even a strong Volans flow rate will not automatically translate into a fast-track development: Rhino must still book commercial reserves, secure a mid-size FPSO lease, and align with partners on a cost-sharing structure. Wood Mackenzie currently assigns a 2029 start-up date to a Rhino-led project under its “accelerated” scenario, but warns slippage to 2031-32 is “equally plausible” if fiscal terms are not finalised within twelve months.

For Namibia, the next few weeks will therefore provide more than a simple “hit or miss” moment. A positive Volans outcome would add momentum to a regulatory calendar that already has TotalEnergies targeting FID in 2026 and would strengthen the fiscal case for the port expansions now pencilled into the national budget.

A dry hole would not derail Venus, but it would leave Capricornus isolated. It could cool the investor enthusiasm that has made Namibia the most active frontier exploration theatre in sub-Saharan Africa. Either way, the country’s long-awaited oil era is no longer a matter of speculation; it is now counting down to data.

Idriss Linge