• Global seaborne trade growth to slow to 0.5% in 2025
• Suez Canal traffic down 70%, rerouting raises freight costs
• UN urges Africa to boost port efficiency, digital systems

Growth in global seaborne trade is expected to slow sharply this year as geopolitical crises and various incidents continue to affect the industry, according to a recent report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), titled “Staying the Course in Turbulent Waters.”

After seeing a modest growth of 2.2 percent in 2024, supported by easing supply chain tensions and improved performance in some regions, the outlook for 2025 projects a global growth of barely 0.5 percent, with the containerized freight segment expected to rise by 1.4 percent.

Disruptions, such as those affecting key waterways, remain significant. In May, for instance, tonnage transiting the Suez Canal was still 70 percent below 2023 levels. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles 11 percent of global trade and one-third of seaborne oil trade, also faces potential disruption risks. Despite the near-term headwinds, medium-term forecasts suggest global volumes could grow at an average annual rate of 2 percent between 2026 and 2030, with containerized freight growing at 2.3 percent.

This market shift reflects a restructuring of supply chains, technological adaptation, and greater emphasis on resilience. These dynamics, the report notes, are reshaping maritime trade patterns, with increasing focus on energy security, sustainability, and trade fragmentation.

Moderate Freight Rate Outlook

UNCTAD projects some reduction in the constraints that drove costs higher in 2024, such as the longer shipping routes that resulted in greater distances traveled per cargo unit. Overall volumes adjusted for distance, or ton-miles, are expected to increase by only 0.3 percent in 2025. Even as rerouting via longer paths continues, the expected additional impact is minimal, as these routes are already incorporated into operational planning.

Specifically, the baseline forecasts for containerized freight assume the continued diversion of vessels to avoid insecure areas in the Red Sea, which sustains the average journey length increase of 11 percent. Should rerouting cease, however, the growth in TEU-miles (volume transported over distance) would slow, and transport costs would ease. For the oil and gas segment, ton-mile growth is expected to be moderate, at 0.1 percent for crude, reflecting a more stable route pattern.

Competitiveness Demands for African Ports

Overall, the report suggests these mixed prospects pose risks for structurally vulnerable economies, including several in Africa. These nations are more exposed to delivery delays, potential cost increases, and the risk of marginalization from emerging trade corridors.

These factors could inflate the cost of African imports, which are already burdened by freight rates that account for up to 40 percent of the value of goods in some landlocked countries. To mitigate these risks, UNCTAD suggests that maritime transport policies prioritize regional integration, strengthen connectivity between ports and their hinterlands, and diversify sourcing options.

To enhance the efficiency of port platforms in these countries, the report also recommends investment in digital and smart systems such as maritime single windows and port community systems. It also stresses the need for solutions to strengthen cybersecurity, which has become a key challenge in the sector.

Henoc Dossa