• Eastern authorities threaten force majeure over key oil terminals
• NOC denies export disruption, but internal divisions raise concerns
• Oil output reached 1.38M bpd in April, highest in over a decade

Libya is facing renewed risks to its crude oil exports following a warning from authorities in the east of the country. On May 29, 2025, the eastern administration threatened to declare a state of force majeure over key oil fields and terminals, citing escalating tensions with the western-based government.

The move marks the first potential disruption to Libya’s oil exports since August 2024. Eastern officials accused the National Oil Corporation (NOC) of being subject to repeated “assaults,” though they did not clarify whether these were physical, administrative, or political. The warning followed speculation about a possible attack on the NOC headquarters in Tripoli, which the company later denied.

The ongoing power struggle between the rival governments—one led by Marshal Khalifa Haftar in the East, the other internationally recognized and based in the West—has once again placed the NOC at the center of political discord. Although the NOC reassured partners that oil and gas production and exports remain uninterrupted and compliant with strict safety standards, the dispute threatens the country’s fragile stability.

The NOC is the sole body authorized to oversee oil exports, and its revenues are centralized in Tripoli. Eastern authorities accuse the corporation of favoritism and are now considering relocating the company’s headquarters to areas under their control, such as Ras Lanuf and Brega. In response, the NOC cites interference attempts and armed threats as key challenges to its operations.

This uncertainty emerges as multinational companies like BP and Eni resume operations in Libya after years of suspension due to political instability. A previous export shutdown in August 2024 led to a sharp drop in output—falling below 500,000 barrels per day—at a time when oil accounted for 97% of exports and over 90% of fiscal revenues.

As of April 2025, Libya’s oil production had rebounded to 1.38 million barrels per day, its highest level in 12 years. The current situation raises fresh concerns over whether that recovery can be sustained.