• Oil demand expected to peak only in 2032, later than earlier forecasts
• Consumption to stay above 106 million barrels per day over the next decade
• Fossil fuels still cover about 80% of primary energy demand, WoodMac says

Global oil demand will peak later than expected, according to the latest Energy Transition Outlook 2025 report from data provider Wood Mackenzie, cited by international media on Wednesday, October 29. The report projects that global demand for oil and other liquid fuels will not reach its maximum until 2032.

Wood Mackenzie estimates that consumption will remain above 106 million barrels per day throughout the next decade, marking a slower transition than previously anticipated. The firm attributes this to growing energy needs driven by population growth and industrial recovery, particularly in emerging economies, despite progress in renewable energy deployment.

The report notes that fossil fuels still account for nearly 80% of primary energy demand, and that low-carbon alternatives have yet to expand enough to reverse the trend. Existing infrastructure, current investment levels, and uneven climate policies are also slowing the pace of structural decline in oil consumption.

Wood Mackenzie’s analysis assumes unchanged economic and technological parameters. While electric vehicle adoption continues to rise, it remains insufficient to offset fuel use in road and air transport.

Under current policies, global average temperatures could increase by about 2.6°C by 2100. Achieving the 2°C target would require raising annual energy investments by about 30%, to more than $4 trillion per year, the report said.

The firm added that a shift toward cleaner energy sources is still possible, depending on the speed of investment and effective policy implementation.

This assessment echoes Rystad Energy’s Oil Macro Scenarios report published in May 2024, which stated that oil demand will continue to grow in the medium term because low-carbon alternatives are not yet mature or competitive enough to offset rising demand in transport and industry.