Africa is projected to supply up to 9% of the global rare earths market thanks to announced mines, positioning the continent as a crucial alternative source to China, which currently dominates production of these vital metals, according to Benchmark Minerals.

The U.S. government said Saturday it has agreed with China to suspend rare earth export restrictions introduced earlier this year. The temporary suspension, reached during a meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea, aims to ensure supply for U.S. industries and suppliers dependent on Beijing. The move is seen as only a short-term reprieve as Washington speeds up efforts to secure alternative supply sources, particularly in Africa.

The move is seen as only a short-term reprieve as Washington speeds up efforts to secure alternative supply sources, particularly in Africa

Two-Year Plan: Africa’s Strategic Role

 The global rare earth industry, which provides metals vital for wind turbines, electric vehicle motors, and defense systems, is dominated by China, which controls about 70% of global production and 90% of refining capacity. Beijing has used this dominance as leverage in its trade conflict with the United States, whose industries remain heavily reliant on Chinese imports.

Washington has set a two-year target to reduce this dependence by developing alternative supply chains. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the Financial Times after the announcement that China made a “serious mistake” by imposing the restrictions, describing them as a wake-up call for the U.S. to speed diversification.

The U.S. strategy is already taking shape in Africa through subsidies and strategic deals tied to several mining projects. In South Africa, the Phalaborwa Rare Earths Project (Rainbow Rare Earths) is backed by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), which committed $50 million in 2023 to fund development through TechMet.

The U.S. strategy is already taking shape in Africa through subsidies and strategic deals tied to several mining projects.

Last week, the British firm Pensana said the U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) plans to provide a $160 million loan for its Longonjo mine in Angola. The financing, the company said, is part of a broader effort to build a fully integrated U.S. supply chain “from mine to magnet,” relying on Longonjo’s output by early 2027, “before the U.S. government restricts Chinese imports.”

On October 30, Australia’s RareX announced a memorandum of understanding with U.S. Strategic Metals, a vertically integrated American firm specializing in critical minerals. The deal, focused on processing cooperation, highlights the Mrima Hill rare earth project in Kenya, which RareX is in the process of acquiring.

China Continues to Consolidate Leadership

These U.S. moves come as Beijing also seeks to strengthen its dominance in Africa. The takeover battle for Peak Rare Earths, operator of Tanzania’s Ngualla project, illustrates the competition: China’s Shenghe Resources offered $127 million (A$195 million), while U.S.-based General Innovation Capital countered with an unsolicited A$240 million bid in September. Shenghe’s offer ultimately prevailed.

For Africa, which already plays, and could further play, a key role in global rare earth supply chains, the challenge lies in turning foreign interest into sustainable revenue and long-term industrial benefits.

The contest underscores how Chinese companies remain active in securing new African sources of rare earths, despite their already dominant global position. Meanwhile, Washington continues to narrow the gap, forming a new critical minerals consortium and deepening partnerships with Japan and Australia, both key players in African mining.

For Africa, which already plays, and could further play, a key role in global rare earth supply chains, the challenge lies in turning foreign interest into sustainable revenue and long-term industrial benefits.

Aurel Sèdjro Houenou