Brazil, the United States, and China dominate the global soybean trade. The ongoing tariff dispute between Washington and Beijing is holding market participants in suspense and continues to impact soybean prices.

The most-active soybean futures contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose 1% on Monday, November 3, to settle at $11.26 per bushel, its highest level since July 2024.

The price gain followed signs of a thaw in trade tensions between the United States and China. China, which buys about 60% of the world’s soybeans, imported no U.S. soybeans in September, the first such halt in seven years, compared with 1.7 million metric tons during the same month last year. The suspension stemmed from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

The absence of U.S. soybeans in the Chinese market boosted South American exporters. Chinese customs data show that Brazil accounted for 85.2% of China’s oilseed imports in September, while Argentina shipped 1.17 million metric tons, or 9% of the total, that month.

On the eve of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a new trade agreement between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Under the deal, China agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for the rest of the current season and at least 25 million metric tons annually over the next three years. Last year, China’s soybean purchases from the United States totaled $13 billion, representing 20% of the U.S. harvest, according to Bloomberg data.

How these commitments translate into actual shipments remains to be seen, but renewed optimism among U.S. farmers has led some analysts to expect soybean prices to firm by year-end.

Earlier this year, the prospect of higher tariffs had clouded the market outlook. Analysts now anticipate that prices could post modest gains at best, or at least avoid another steep drop like in 2024, when CBOT prices fell 22.8% under pressure from a bumper U.S. harvest and a strong crop from Brazil.