• WTO lifts Africa trade forecast: exports +5.3%, imports +11.8%

• Africa set to lead global import growth in 2025

• Services exports lag; digital leaders like Kenya, Nigeria to benefit

This year, African countries’ trade is expected to grow faster than previously forecast, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO). In its latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, released Tuesday, October 7, the WTO projects African merchandise exports to rise 5.3% and imports to surge 11.8% this year.

These projections represent a sharp upward revision from the April forecast, which had predicted import growth of 6.5% and export growth of just 0.6%. The earlier outlook was clouded by global trade tensions following new U.S. tariff hikes under President Donald Trump, which raised concerns over further trade fragmentation. The WTO initially expected those measures to weigh on trade, particularly exports from developing to advanced economies. But stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of 2025 prompted the organization to lift its forecasts across all regions, including Africa.

Imports Set for Fastest Global Growth

On the import side, Africa is projected to post the fastest growth in the world this year, outpacing Asia (+5.7%) and South America (+8.8%), the WTO said.

By contrast, the continent continues to lag in services trade. The WTO expects services exports to rise just 1.3% in 2025, down from 4.9% in 2024, before recovering to 2.1% in 2026. That compares with a global average of +4.6% in 2025 and +4.4% in 2026, supported by the boom in digital services and AI-related trade. Countries investing heavily in service digitalization, notably Kenya, Egypt, and Nigeria, are expected to benefit the most, particularly in telecommunications and IT services.

Globally, merchandise trade is projected to expand 2.4% in 2025, up from April’s estimate of -0.2%, before slowing to 0.5% in 2026. The WTO attributed the temporary rebound to front-loaded imports in North America ahead of higher tariffs, stronger macroeconomic conditions, and rising demand for AI-related goods. However, rising protectionism and sluggish global growth are expected to limit the recovery from 2026 onward.

For 2026, the WTO sees Africa’s exports stagnating and imports slowing to 5.4%. Even at that pace, African import growth would still outpace the global average of 0.5%.

Moutiou Adjibi Nourou