• TotalEnergies projects global temperature rise of 2.6-2.8°C under current energy trends
• Fossil fuels to remain 60% of energy mix by 2050; oil demand peaking in 2040 at 108M bpd
• Company sees Paris targets as unlikely; critics cite continued investment in major fossil projects
  

In its Energy Outlook 2025, published this week, TotalEnergies warned that the goal of limiting the rise in global average temperature to “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels,” and “pursuing efforts” to cap it at 1.5°C by 2100, remains beyond reach.

The French energy major said that, based on current trends, the central target of the Paris Agreement, adopted on December 12, 2015, is unlikely to be met. Under its “Trends” scenario outlined in the 28-page report, TotalEnergies projects that global oil demand will continue rising until 2040, peaking at 108 million barrels per day (bpd) before gradually declining to 98 million bpd by 2050.

This scenario, which assumes existing policies and technological developments continue, foresees fossil fuels still accounting for 60% of the global energy mix in 2050. At that pace, global temperatures would rise by between 2.6°C and 2.8°C by the end of the century. The report adds that “If current trends hold, China advances toward its 2060 goal while OECD countries reduce emissions but fall short of their 2050 Net Zero targets. India and the Rest of World continue to develop with limited decarbonization.”

TotalEnergies considers the Paris Agreement’s most ambitious pathway, its so-called “Breakthrough” scenario, both aspirational and difficult to achieve in today’s fragmented geopolitical environment. “Geopolitical tensions make this scenario unattainable, as it would require stronger global cooperation to stay below 2°C: OECD countries and China would need to back low-carbon growth in emerging economies,” the company said.

As a middle ground, TotalEnergies outlines a “Momentum” scenario in which OECD countries would come close to their 2050 net-zero targets and China would near its 2060 commitment. In that case, nearly half of future energy demand growth in India and the rest of the world would be met by low-carbon sources. This pathway would result in a global temperature increase of between 2.2°C and 2.4°C by 2100.

While the company’s findings broadly align with other analyses showing insufficient progress on climate goals, critics point out its ongoing investment in new fossil fuel projects. According to a report published in October, Le Monde noted that TotalEnergies holds 107 planned oil and gas projects,giving it the world’s third-largest portfolio of so-called “carbon bombs,” defined as fossil fuel developments expected to emit over one gigatonne of CO₂ over their lifetime.

Espoir Olodo