• Inflation is easing, but food, transport and living costs are still rising, keeping households under strain.
• Reserves have improved, yet cedi volatility persists as debt talks and election risks unsettle markets.
• Banks rebuilt capital, but tight credit is choking SMEs and slowing job creation.

Ghana’s macroeconomic indicators are beginning to show signs of stabilisation, but the improvements have yet to translate into real relief for households and businesses. Recent IMF assessments, market data, and local policy commentary highlight a widening gap between progress on paper and the lived experience of citizens as the country enters a politically sensitive period leading into the 2026 fiscal cycle.

Inflation fell to 12.1% in July 2025, the lowest in nearly four years, but prices remain elevated compared to the prior period, across key consumption categories. Food inflation remains high at 15%, and transport costs continue to rise as fuel-price adjustments filter through the economy. A month-on-month inflation rate of 0.7% shows that, while inflation is declining, the overall price level continues to rise. For many informal workers and low-income households, wages have not kept pace, deepening the cost-of-living crisis after three years of persistent shocks.

Foreign-exchange reserves strengthened to $11.4 billion, providing 4.8 months of import cover and benefiting from the Bank of Ghana’s gold-related repurchase inflows. Despite this improvement, the cedi remains volatile. Importers’ FX demand delayed external-debt restructuring, and election-year uncertainty continues to weigh on market confidence. Treasury-bill yields remain high, reflecting investors’ caution and Ghana’s unresolved debt outlook.

The financial sector is gradually stabilising, with most banks restoring capital adequacy levels to about 13% following the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme. However, lending has not recovered. High non-performing loans and risk-averse bank strategies are restricting credit to SMEs in manufacturing, retail, and agriculture. These sectors, which typically absorb large numbers of young workers, are facing financing shortages that are slowing job creation and weakening Ghana’s recovery momentum.

Fiscal consolidation registered progress, with Ghana posting a primary surplus of 0.5% of GDP in 2025. Enhanced VAT compliance, improved digital tax systems, and tighter expenditure controls contributed to the turnaround. Still, unresolved external-debt negotiations continue to limit fiscal space and dampen investor confidence. Analysts note that clarity on restructuring terms is essential to anchor bond yields and restore medium-term market access.

Despite these stabilisation gains, many households continue to face significant economic hardship. Real wages lag inflation, and many informal workers earn below the GH¢2,922 living-wage benchmark. Exchange-rate pass-through keeps essential goods expensive, and youth unemployment remains above 30%, constraining domestic demand and slowing overall recovery.

Ghana’s stabilisation efforts are moving forward, but the recovery remains fragile and uneven. Macroeconomic indicators show improvement, yet benefits are not reaching families and small businesses sufficiently. Analysts widely agree that sustained disinflation, stronger credit flows, and swift progress on external-debt restructuring will be critical in determining whether the country can transition from stabilisation to inclusive economic growth.

Cynthia Ebot Takang, edited by Idriss Linge