• Brazil’s robusta coffee harvest is set to more than double since 2016/2017, narrowing the gap with Vietnam.

• Brazil’s robusta thrives due to its tolerance of drought, disease resistance, and higher yields.

• Increased Brazilian robusta supply could ease global stock pressures amid climate change and rising demand.

Brazil and Vietnam dominate the global coffee market, with Brazil leading arabica and Vietnam controlling robusta. But Brazil’s recent gains in robusta production threaten Vietnam’s long-standing dominance.

The question of whether Brazil will become the top robusta producer has gained traction. This topic featured prominently during the Coffee Dinner & Summit hosted by Brazil’s coffee exporters group, Cecafe, in Sao Paulo from July 2 to 4.

Brazil already controls 45% of the global arabica supply. However, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data show Brazil could soon challenge Vietnam’s lead in robusta.

The USDA forecasts Brazil’s robusta harvest will reach 24.1 million bags in 2025/2026, more than double the 10.5 million bags harvested in 2016/2017. Vietnam’s lead over Brazil stood at over 15 million bags in 2016/2017 but should shrink to about 6 million bags by the end of the upcoming campaign.

The USDA also expects Brazil’s overall coffee output to rise slightly in 2025/2026, boosted by a 3.1 million bag increase in robusta, despite a 2.8 million bag drop in arabica production.

David Neumann, CEO of Neumann Kaffee Gruppe, one of the world’s largest coffee traders, told Reuters that many people were shocked—or at least surprised—by the rapid growth and scale of Brazil’s robusta harvest. He added that caution is necessary when forecasting the situation 14 months ahead, noting that since the cold season has not yet passed, it remains uncertain. However, he said the outlook looks positive for now.

Analysts attribute Brazil’s robusta surge to the variety’s inherent traits. Unlike arabica, robusta tolerates dry and hot conditions well—a crucial advantage after Brazil’s severe drought last year.

Robusta also resists diseases like coffee leaf rust better, yields more per hectare, and suffers less from biennial bearing, a cycle that causes arabica production to fluctuate between high and low years.

Observers say Brazil’s growing robusta supply could help relieve pressure on global coffee stocks, which face stress from climate change and rising demand.

Espoir Olodo