• 54% of Togolese favor leaving ECOWAS for the Sahel States Alliance (AES), according to a recent survey.

• Support is higher among men, urban residents, and in regions like Centrale and Lomé.

• Togo has strengthened ties with AES members, raising the possibility of an official shift.

More than half of Togolese citizens believe their country would be better off leaving the regional bloc ECOWAS to join the Sahel States Alliance (AES). This finding comes from a November 2024 Afrobarometer survey, which interviewed 1,200 adults across the country. The poll highlights shifting public opinion as Togo draws closer to the alliance formed by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.

According to the data, 54% of respondents support Togo joining the AES. The idea appears more popular among men (57%) than women (50%). It also gains more backing in cities (59%) than in rural areas (49%). Regionally, the strongest support is seen in Centrale (74%), Lomé Commune (64%), and Savanes (60%).

The AES began as a military partnership between Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger but became a confederation in July 2024, shortly after the three nations collectively withdrew from ECOWAS. As relations grow tense between the AES and some ECOWAS members, Togo has quietly deepened its cooperation with the new bloc.

One major sign of this shift is the growing use of Lomé’s port as a key transit route for goods heading to Burkina Faso and Niger. This development has come at the expense of Cotonou’s port in neighboring Benin, which previously handled much of the traffic.

In early 2025, Togo's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Robert Dussey, publicly mentioned that the country is considering joining the AES. “Togo is exploring the possibility of joining the AES. It is a strategic decision that could strengthen regional cooperation and provide coastal access to member countries,” Dussey stated in March.

Joining the AES could boost Togo’s role as a key regional hub—not only for ECOWAS countries but also for AES members. However, this potential move may further strain Togo’s relationship with ECOWAS, raising questions about the country’s future position within the long-standing West African bloc.

Despite growing enthusiasm, not everyone sees the AES in a positive light. According to the survey, 37% of those questioned believe the alliance poses a threat to regional integration in West Africa.

Emiliano Tossou