• AfDB portfolio under review against a macroeconomic backdrop of modest growth and disinflation

• IMF data confirm real GDP expansion around 4–5% through 2025–26, with inflation near historic lows

• Public debt remains moderate by regional standards, and current account deficits persist.

The African Development Bank’s Country Portfolio Performance Review (CPPR) in Mali takes place against a broader macroeconomic backdrop characterised by moderate growth, low inflation and ongoing external imbalances.  Mali’s real GDP growth has shown resilience despite persistent structural challenges. IMF estimates indicate the economy expanded by around 4.7% in 2024 and is projected to grow by about 5.0–5.4% in 2025–26, supported by agriculture, gold exports and private consumption, although downside risks remain related to insecurity and global commodity volatility.

Independent estimates based on regional econometric sources similarly place 2024 nominal GDP in the low-to-mid-20 billion USD range, with continued positive growth in 2025. For example, international macroeconomic compilations show Mali’s nominal GDP near US$25.6 billion in 2025, with a projected growth rate of around 5.0%.

Inflation in Mali remains subdued, reflecting weak demand and relative stability in food prices. IMF data indicate average consumer price inflation of about 3.2% in 2024, with projections in the 2.0–3.5% range for 2025–26, a marked contrast to the elevated inflation experienced by many economies in the wake of the pandemic and global commodity shocks.

Mali’s public debt ratio, while not negligible, is moderate compared with several peers in the region. IMF figures place general government debt at around 51.7% of GDP in 2024, with projections to decline modestly to about 50.5% in 2025 and further in 2026, assuming continued fiscal discipline. External public debt is a sizeable share of total debt, but recent regional data confirm that external obligations amount to roughly 24% of GDP in 2024.

External balances remain a structural challenge. IMF estimates point to a current account deficit of 4–5% of GDP in 2024 and close to –4.8% in 2025, reflecting persistent reliance on imports and limited diversification of export earnings, even as gold and agricultural receipts help narrow trade shortfalls.

This macroeconomic context provides an essential perspective for the AfDB’s CPPR findings. The Bank’s active portfolio, spanning transport, agriculture, climate adaptation and governance, operates in an environment of moderate but vulnerable growth, relatively low inflation, and ongoing external financing needs. Review outcomes that emphasise project execution bottlenecks, procurement capacity and implementation delays reflect broader structural constraints that extend beyond the AfDB’s portfolio alone.

By Cynthia Ebot Takang