• Global uranium output may halve post-2030, WNA warns
• African mines ramp up to meet rising nuclear fuel demand
• Investment gaps, disputes threaten timely project development

Despite a 22% rebound between 2022 and 2024, when it reached 60,213 metric tons, global uranium production could fall by half after 2030 due to declining yields from active mines.

This projection, made by the World Nuclear Association (WNA) in a report published Friday, raises concerns about future supply for a market whose demand is expected to grow to more than 150,000 tons of uranium by 2040, driven largely by nuclear reactors. Potential new sources exist, especially in Africa, where nearly a dozen new mines are being developed.

Zambia, Malawi, Mauritania, Niger, and Namibia to the Rescue

The WNA’s projections are based on a baseline scenario using government and utility plans for civilian nuclear adoption. The organization stressed the need to "Thus accelerated development of new projects will be needed in the current decade to avoid potential future supply disruptions." It also noted that it currently takes 10 to 20 years from the discovery of a new deposit to its first production.

Meanwhile, Africa, which accounted for only 15.5% of the world's supply in 2022—nearly the same as Canada, the world's second-largest producer behind Kazakhstan—is already increasing its production capacity. Following the Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia, which was restarted by Paladin Energy in 2024, the Kayelekera mine in Malawi was relaunched by Lotus Resources in August 2025. The company plans for an average annual production of 2.4 million pounds of uranium over ten years.

In parallel, the continent is home to new projects well-positioned to contribute to supply within the next two to three years. These include Tiris, a future mine being developed by Aura Energy in Mauritania, which aims to produce 2 million pounds annually starting in 2027. In Niger, Global Atomic plans to commission the Dasa project by 2026, which has a potential to produce 68.1 million pounds over 23 years. The country is also home to GoviEx's Madaouéla project, which could deliver 50.8 million pounds over 19 years.

GoviEx is also active in Zambia with the Mutanga project, which is scheduled to begin production by 2028. In Namibia, Africa's leading producer of nuclear fuel, the Tumas (Deep Yellow) and Etango (Bannerman Energy) projects are each expected to produce at least 3 million pounds of uranium per year. Finally, Botswana could also contribute to this regional momentum through the Letlhakane project, where initial studies indicate an annual production capacity of 3 million pounds for ten years.

Bright Prospects, but Structural Challenges Remain

While these projects are well-positioned to support future uranium supply and meet some of the anticipated demand, their recent acceleration is primarily linked to market dynamics. Driven by a rally in spot prices, which reached a historic high of $100 per pound in early 2024 due to renewed interest in nuclear power, companies are increasing their investments in mine development.

This month, for example, Lotus Resources announced a $42 million fundraising to finance its operations in Malawi and Botswana. Similarly, Bannerman Energy announced a $55 million investment earlier in June for its Etango uranium project in Namibia. However, these sustained investments do not erase the cautious approach of some players in the face of current market dynamics.

Deep Yellow, for instance, postponed the final investment decision for Tumas last April. The company cited a long-term price below its reference threshold of $82.50 per pound, which was set in the project's feasibility study. According to price assessments compiled by uranium producer Cameco, the long-term price for uranium has been hovering in the $80 to $81 per pound range since July 2024.

Bannerman shares the same observations, indicating earlier this year that the current market conditions do not yet allow it to proceed to the next phase. In its latest quarterly report published in late July, the company maintained its position, stating that it is operating with a "gated approach to project expenditure, reflecting strengthening term uranium market fundamentals."

The importance these companies place on the forward market is significant, as it is their primary sales channel. This market allows them to secure contracts with fixed prices from energy suppliers and other clients, thereby ensuring the profitability of their projects. While there is little evidence to suggest an imminent improvement in conditions, other challenges continue to hinder the progress of uranium projects in Africa.

Funding and Stakeholder Disputes

Additionally, some companies are still working to secure the necessary investment for mine construction to reach a final investment decision. Aura Energy, for example, is still trying to secure $230 million for Tiris, while Global Atomic aims to cover a $295 million budget to begin construction on Dasa. Based on the information available, funding for the Tumas, Etango, and Mutanga projects has not yet been finalized.

In Niger, the situation is different for GoviEx, whose Madaouéla mining permit was revoked by the government in July 2024. An arbitration proceeding is underway to resolve the dispute, which adds uncertainty to the project's development. Despite its potential, several challenges stand in the way of a possible increase in African supply, which could help compensate for the anticipated drop in global production.

Aurel Sèdjro Houenou