• The IMF lowered CEMAC’s 2026 growth forecast to 3% from 3.3% amid weaker regional and global conditions.
• Chad is set to lead growth at 5.2%, while Equatorial Guinea is expected to contract by 2.7%.
• Rising energy, fertilizer, and shipping costs linked to Middle East tensions are weighing on the outlook.

In October 2025, the International Monetary Fund projected 3.3% growth for the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa in 2026. The institution has since revised this forecast downward against a backdrop of slowing economic activity in sub-Saharan Africa, partly linked to spillovers from tensions in the Middle East.

CEMAC should record real GDP growth of 3% in 2026, compared with the previously expected 3.3%, according to the IMF’s April report on the regional economic outlook for sub-Saharan Africa.

The report indicates that Chad will post the strongest economic performance in the region, with growth estimated at 5.2%, above the bloc’s average and higher than the previously forecast 3.6%.

However, Cameroon, which analysts previously expected to lead growth, saw its forecast revised downward to 3.3% from 4.1%. Meanwhile, the Republic of the Congo is maintaining stable growth at 2.8%, ranking third, followed closely by Gabon at 2.7% and the Central African Republic at 2.6%.

At the same time, Equatorial Guinea shifted from an expected expansion of 0.5% to a contraction of 2.7%, marking the weakest performance in the bloc.

This CEMAC outlook stands slightly above the macroeconomic projections released earlier in April by the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Central African States, which forecast growth at 2.9%.

Moreover, this revision aligns with a broader downgrade in IMF forecasts for sub-Saharan Africa, where growth is now expected to reach 4.3% in 2026, 0.3 percentage points lower than previous estimates.

The IMF attributes the weaker outlook to the consequences of tensions in the Middle East, which have clouded global prospects. The institution stated that “the prices of oil, gas, and fertilizers, as well as maritime shipping costs, have risen sharply. Moreover, this shock has disrupted trade with Gulf partners, reduced tourist arrivals, and is expected to affect remittance flows to some countries.”

Such developments could increase the import bill for refined petroleum products in CEMAC countries, which remain major importers of fuel and domestic gas. However, higher commodity prices could also boost export revenues for the region’s oil-producing economies.

Lydie Mobio