• DRC will resume cobalt exports on Oct. 16 under strict quotas, capped at 96,600 tons annually through 2027.
• CMOC, which shipped 96,000 tons in 2024, is directly hit, while Glencore is more resilient thanks to diversification.
• Kinshasa aims to stabilize prices and push local processing, reshaping the global balance of the cobalt trade.

The Democratic Republic of Congo will resume cobalt exports on October 16 after a months-long suspension, but with strict quotas that reset the rules of the global market. The country’s critical minerals regulator, ARECOMS, stated that only 18,125 tons of cobalt will be cleared for export by year-end, with the volume divided among October, November, and December.

The move is more than a temporary fix. Kinshasa plans to extend the quota system into 2026 and 2027, capping annual exports at 87,000 tons for miners, plus 9,600 tons of “strategic quotas” to be allocated at the regulator’s discretion. That would put total permitted exports at 96,600 tons a year — a level less than what was seen since 2020, before prices spiked to a record $85,524 a ton in May 2022.

The decision instantly shifts the market's balance of power. China Molybdenum (CMOC), owner of Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu mines, shipped nearly 96,000 tons in 2024 — essentially the entirety of the new quota. With demand from its key shareholder, CATL, rising, CMOC faces the choice of cutting back volumes or seeking privileged access to the regulator’s “strategic” pool.

Glencore, by contrast, appears less exposed. Kamoto Copper Company exported approximately 31,000 tons in 2024 and expects to reach 45,000 tons this year. While acknowledging the financial impact of the suspension, the Swiss miner has argued that the policy could help rebalance a disorderly market that had been oversupplied and distorted by excessive stockpiles. Diversification across multiple metals gives Glencore more flexibility to ride out price cycles.

The smaller producers, about forty in total that exported over 100 tons in 2024 and thus are not exempted from the quota application, face a tougher outlook. They must now compete within a capped ceiling while covering high operating costs. Consolidation appears inevitable, with stronger firms potentially acquiring weaker ones. Those below the 100-ton threshold — including New Minerals Investment, Excellen Minerals, CNMC Congo Compagnie and HMC — are exempt, but they remain marginal in scale.

At a strategic level, Kinshasa’s move is not only about prices. By controlling volumes, the government is signaling its intent to force greater local value addition — refining and battery production — rather than allowing an endless stream of raw ore to leave the country. The discretionary “strategic quota” could be used as leverage to favor investors who commit to building processing capacity inside the DRC.

The international implications are significant. China’s electric-vehicle sector alone is expected to need 47,000 tons of cobalt in 2026 and 51,000 tons in 2027, not including aerospace and renewable-energy industries. Quotas risk pushing Chinese buyers into long-term bilateral deals, reducing the liquidity of the global spot market. South Korean, Japanese, and European buyers may find themselves at a disadvantage unless they align with Kinshasa’s industrial goals.

In the short term, the quotas squeeze CMOC while offering Glencore breathing space. In the medium term, small producers will be forced into consolidation. And in the long run, the DRC is positioning itself as the decisive arbiter of the cobalt trade — a market-shaping role that could redefine the relationship between resource holders and industrial powers for years to come.

Idriss Linge