• Kenya hopes for U.S. trade deal by end of 2025
• AGOA expiry threatens jobs, 10% U.S. export tariffs
• Talks restarted in August; deal timing still uncertain

After nearly five years of negotiations, a trade deal between Kenya and the United States may finally be concluded this year, Kenyan officials believe.

On September 19, Kenya's Trade Minister Lee Kinyanjui told Reuters the country hopes for a favorable outcome by the end of the year.

With the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) set to expire by September 30, the William Ruto administration is racing against the clock to avoid a 10% tariff on its exports to the U.S. and to protect jobs.

Thanks to AGOA, which offers duty-free and quota-free access to the U.S., Kenya has attracted several textile companies to its export processing zones. Over two decades, this has made Kenya Africa's top clothing supplier to the U.S. and the continent's fifth-largest exporter under the preferential trade regime.

"It depends also on them (the Americans), but our view is that before the end of the year, we should be able to have something on the table," Kinyanjui said.

While Kinyanjui is optimistic about a potential trade agreement—which would be the first of its kind for the U.S. in sub-Saharan Africa and the second with an African country after the one signed with Morocco—observers remain more cautious.

In March 2023, for instance, Kenyan authorities had already raised this possibility, aiming for an April 2024 conclusion, but no deal materialized. Furthermore, in August, the two countries agreed to restart discussions, which had been suspended by the Biden administration, without setting a date for another round of talks.

Meanwhile, Kenya's manufacturing sector continues to lobby for an extension of AGOA. Pankaj Bedi, chairman of textile company United Aryan, said delegations from Kenya and four other AGOA beneficiaries traveled to Washington in the week of September 8 to plead for a temporary extension of the trade mechanism. According to official data, AGOA supports 300,000 direct and indirect textile jobs in Kenya.

Espoir Olodo