The institution said the outlook for commodity prices remains subject to significant risks, including a longer-than-expected duration of hostilities in the Middle East, as well as supply and demand factors.

Agricultural commodity prices are expected to rise sharply in 2026, driven by the impact of the war in the Middle East, the World Bank said on Tuesday.

In its Commodity Markets Outlook, the bank projects overall commodity prices will increase 16% in 2026, pushed higher by surging energy and fertilizer costs and record prices for several key metals.

The forecasts assume the most acute phase of supply disruptions linked to the conflict will ease by May. Maritime freight through the Strait of Hormuz is then expected to recover gradually, returning to pre-war levels by the fourth quarter.

Energy prices are forecast to jump 24% in 2026, reaching their highest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Attacks on infrastructure and major disruptions to shipping through the Strait — which accounts for about 35% of global seaborne crude trade — have triggered a record oil supply shock, cutting supply by roughly 10 million barrels per day at the peak.

Despite easing from recent highs, Brent crude remained more than 50% above levels at the start of the year as of mid-April. Prices are expected to average $86 per barrel in 2026, up from $69 in 2025, before falling to $70 in 2027.

European natural gas prices are forecast to rise 25% in 2026 before dropping 20% in 2027. The increase reflects reduced LNG supply due to the conflict, with Europe competing for cargoes with buyers that typically source from the Middle East. U.S. gas prices are expected to rise more moderately, by 8% in 2026 and 5% in 2027.

Coal prices are projected to climb 20% in 2026 before falling 12% in 2027, supported by increased coal use for power generation as gas shortages persist.

The projected shocks to energy, fertilizers and other commodities mainly reflect temporary disruptions — where production capacity remains sufficient but access is constrained — rather than structural imbalances between supply and demand.

Metal prices to hit new highs

Metal prices overall are expected to rise 17% in 2026, amid strong demand from data centres, electric vehicles and renewable energy.

Aluminium prices are forecast to rise 21.6% to $3,200 per tonne, copper 20.6% to $12,000, and nickel 12.1% to $17,000, all reaching record levels.

Precious metals are set to see the largest gains, with prices rising 42% on average as geopolitical uncertainty boosts demand for safe-haven assets. Growing industrial use of silver and platinum is also expected to tighten supply.

Gold is forecast to rise 36.6% to a record $4,700 per ounce before easing to $4,300 in 2027. Silver is expected to surge 75.9% to $70 per ounce, while platinum is seen rising 52.5% to $1,950.

Food prices are expected to increase only modestly, rising about 2% in 2026 and edging higher in 2027, supported by ample global grain stocks at the start of the crisis.

Price pressures are likely to be stronger for oils and flours, some of which serve as feedstock for biofuels that can substitute for oil.

Palm oil and soybean oil prices are each expected to rise 8% in 2026. Wheat prices are forecast to increase 4% and corn 3.8%, while cocoa prices are projected to fall 51.3%. Arabica coffee prices are expected to drop 14.4% and robusta 17.7%.

Fertilizer prices are forecast to rise 31% in 2026 before easing in 2027, as several countries affected by the war are key suppliers.

The World Bank said risks to its outlook are skewed to the upside. If disruptions in the Middle East last longer or intensify, Brent crude could average between $95 and $115 per barrel in 2026, with other commodity prices also exceeding baseline forecasts.

Walid Kéfi