News

Malaysia Forecasts Palm Oil at $1,082 a Ton on Supply Squeeze

Malaysia Forecasts Palm Oil at $1,082 a Ton on Supply Squeeze
Saturday, 22 November 2025 18:52
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Council forecasts prices rising to 4,500 ringgit by year-end

  • Demand from China, Ramadan, and monsoon disruptions seen tightening supply

  • Indonesia’s B50 biodiesel plan may reduce exports, adding upward price pressure

The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects benchmark palm oil prices to rise to 4,500 ringgit ($1,082) per ton by the end of the year. In a statement on Thursday, the council said its lower-end forecast sees prices trading between 4,100 and 4,200 ringgit.

The MPOC said the projected price increase is linked to steady import demand ahead of the Chinese New Year and Ramadan, coupled with mixed supply outlook in the coming months.

"Exceptionally strong production from July to October 2025 also implies a sharper-than-usual seasonal decline in output in December and into Q1 2026 as oil palm trees enter their biological resting phase," the public agency said. It added that the onset of the monsoon in mid-November is expected to disrupt harvesting activities.

Price expectations are also supported by uncertainties surrounding Indonesia's biofuel policy, according to the MPOC. Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, plans to launch a B50 biodiesel program by the second half of 2026, which would increase the palm oil-based content in biodiesel to 50% from the current 40%. This move is expected to reduce international sales from the country.

The council's statement comes as palm oil prices have traded between 4,109 and 4,226 ringgit since the beginning of November.

Separately, Hamburg-based oilseeds analyst Oil World forecast that prices could reach 5,000 ringgit within six months, citing uncertainties in the Indonesian supply chain.

Espoir Olodo

On the same topic
African startup M&A hits record 67 deals in 2025 Consolidation driven by funding pressures and expansion strategies Fintech leads deals as “Big Four”...
S&P rated Africa Finance Corporation A/A-1 with positive outlook Strong risk management, low NPLs support infrastructure-focused...
Glencore issued 2026 copper guidance, withheld cobalt forecast amid uncertainty DRC cobalt exports constrained by quotas, copper production...
The World Bank is preparing a $250 million grant-funded project to support SME financing in Niger. The project aligns with Niger’s national...
Most Read
01

Except for Tunisia entering the Top 10 at Libya’s expense, and Morocco moving up to sixth ahead of A...

Global Firepower Index 2026: Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria Lead Africa's Military Rankings
02

Circular migration is based on structured, value-added mobility between countries of origin and host...

Circular migration as a lever to turn Africa’s student exodus into value
03

BRVM listed the bonds of the FCTC Sonabhy 8.1% 2025–2031, marking Burkina Faso’s first securitiz...

BRVM Lists Burkina Faso’s First Securitization Fund Bonds
04

CBE introduced CBE Connect in partnership with fintech StarPay. The platform enables cross-border...

Ethiopia’s CBE launches digital platform to channel diaspora remittances
05

President Tinubu approved incentives limited to the Bonga South West oil project. The project tar...

Nigeria approves targeted incentives to speed up Shell’s Bonga South West project
Enter your email to receive our newsletter

Ecofin Agency provides daily coverage of nine key African economic sectors: public management, finance, telecoms, agribusiness, mining, energy, transport, communication, and education.
It also designs and manages specialized media, both online and print, for African institutions and publishers.

SALES & ADVERTISING

regie@agenceecofin.com 
Tél: +41 22 301 96 11 
Mob: +41 78 699 13 72


EDITORIAL
redaction@agenceecofin.com

More information
Team
Publisher

ECOFIN AGENCY

Mediamania Sarl
Rue du Léman, 6
1201 Geneva
Switzerland

 

Ecofin Agency is a sector-focused economic news agency, founded in December 2010. Its web platform was launched in June 2011. ©Mediamania.

 
 

Please publish modules in offcanvas position.