• Malaysian Palm Oil Council forecasts prices rising to 4,500 ringgit by year-end
  
  
• Demand from China, Ramadan, and monsoon disruptions seen tightening supply
  
  
• Indonesia’s B50 biodiesel plan may reduce exports, adding upward price pressure
  

The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects benchmark palm oil prices to rise to 4,500 ringgit ($1,082) per ton by the end of the year. In a statement on Thursday, the council said its lower-end forecast sees prices trading between 4,100 and 4,200 ringgit.

The MPOC said the projected price increase is linked to steady import demand ahead of the Chinese New Year and Ramadan, coupled with mixed supply outlook in the coming months.

"Exceptionally strong production from July to October 2025 also implies a sharper-than-usual seasonal decline in output in December and into Q1 2026 as oil palm trees enter their biological resting phase," the public agency said. It added that the onset of the monsoon in mid-November is expected to disrupt harvesting activities.

Price expectations are also supported by uncertainties surrounding Indonesia's biofuel policy, according to the MPOC. Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, plans to launch a B50 biodiesel program by the second half of 2026, which would increase the palm oil-based content in biodiesel to 50% from the current 40%. This move is expected to reduce international sales from the country.

The council's statement comes as palm oil prices have traded between 4,109 and 4,226 ringgit since the beginning of November.

Separately, Hamburg-based oilseeds analyst Oil World forecast that prices could reach 5,000 ringgit within six months, citing uncertainties in the Indonesian supply chain.

Espoir Olodo