• Guinea-Bissau holds presidential, legislative elections amid political fragility
  
• President Embaló seeks second term; 65% voter turnout reported
  
• IMF sees 5.5% growth in 2025, but World Bank warns of key risks
  

Guinea-Bissau’s President Umaro Sissoco Embaló voted on Sunday, November 23, 2025, in a presidential election in which he is seeking a second term, backed by the Republican Platform “Nô Kumpu Guinée” coalition. He faces eleven other contenders, including Fernando Dias da Costa, supported by the “PAI Terra Ranka” and “API Cabas Garandi” coalitions. Dias da Costa, who served as Vice-President of the National People’s Assembly during the 11th parliamentary term, is backed by Domingos Simões Pereira, the main opposition leader and head of the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC).

Nearly 966,152 people were registered to vote, with turnout estimated at about 65%. According to Idrissa Diallo, spokesperson for the National Electoral Commission, the vote proceeded peacefully. The presidential election was held alongside a legislative vote. The Supreme Court cleared 13 political parties and one electoral coalition to compete for the 102 seats in the National People’s Assembly.

The polls come amid political and institutional fragility. According to the World Bank, Guinea-Bissau is among the countries most vulnerable to coups, with four successful putsches and seventeen other attempts, plots, or alleged plots recorded.

Economically, the country remains resilient, with growth expected to reach 5.5% in 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). But the World Bank warns that risks include weak performance in the cashew sector, global commodity shocks, political instability, election-related uncertainty, and possible fiscal slippage. It also notes that corruption remains widespread and that Guinea-Bissau is still one of the world’s poorest countries, though the poverty rate is projected to ease to 41.2% in 2025.

The Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP) and the African Union Electoral Observation Mission are on the ground to observe the vote. Provisional results could be announced on Thursday, November 27, according to the electoral commission.

Lydie Mobio