• IMF approves final review of Mali’s reform program launched in 2025

• Growth forecast at 5.4% in 2026, supported by mining and improved security

• Budget revenue expected to rise 11.6% to about $5.3 billion

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved the second and final review of Mali’s Staff Monitored Program, launched in March 2025, and expects the country’s economic outlook to strengthen in the near term. Budget revenue is projected to reach about $5.3 billion in 2026, with growth forecast at 5.4%, supported by a rebound in gold production, improving security conditions, and efforts to diversify energy sources.

In a statement issued on Monday, March 23, the IMF said implementation had been “solid amid a challenging environment,” with all quantitative and indicative targets met and structural reforms successfully completed.

According to the institution, Malian authorities met all financial and structural benchmarks, including progress in digitizing tax collection and improving transparency in public procurement.

On the macroeconomic front, Mali’s economy is showing signs of recovery. After security disruptions and a decline in gold output in 2025, the expected rebound in mining activity and gradual improvements in security are set to support growth in 2026. Inflation remains contained below 3%, while high global prices for gold and lithium offer additional revenue potential.

The program’s continuation comes as Mali’s outlook improves, with growth forecast at 5.4% in 2026, up from 5% in 2025. In the draft 2026 finance law, budget revenue is projected at CFA3,057.792 billion (about $5.3 billion), compared with CFA2,739.697 billion in the revised 2025 budget—an increase of 11.61%, driven mainly by higher general budget revenue and special Treasury accounts.

The IMF noted that “elevated gold and lithium prices could generate additional revenues,” but stressed that transparent and prudent management—anchored by a non-mining fiscal framework—will be key to avoiding procyclical policies. The 2026 budget targets a deficit of 3% of GDP, in line with the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) ceiling, supported by stronger domestic revenue mobilization and controlled current spending.

“The SMP (Staff Monitored Program), approved in March 2025, aims to ensure fiscal sustainability, strengthen governance and public, and protect the most vulnerable,” the IMF said, adding that it will continue to support Mali’s reform efforts and economic priorities.

Carelle Yourann (Intern)