In an era marked by sharp swings in commodity prices and global events that disrupt supply chains, the report underscores that transforming raw materials into higher-value products is fundamental for achieving a more prosperous and resilient economy.

Forty-six of Africa’s 54 countries depend on raw material exports like hydrocarbons, agricultural products, and minerals. This is according to a report the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published on July 21, 2025.

The report, titled "The State of Commodity Dependence 2025," defines a country as commodity-dependent if these products make up over 60% of its total merchandise exports. By this measure, only nine African countries are not dependent on raw materials: Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Djibouti, Comoros, Mauritius, Eswatini, and Lesotho.

Central and West Africa show extreme commodity dependence, with all countries in both regions affected. The intensity of this dependence is particularly high in these areas, at 80% in Central Africa and 75% in West Africa. East Africa faces similar challenges, with 15 of 18 countries, or 83%, reliant on raw material exports. Specifically, 11 African countries depend on energy exports, 15 on agricultural products, and 20 on minerals.

The report, which analyzed data from 2021 to 2023 against the 2012-2014 period, shows Africa accounts for 46.6% of the world's commodity-dependent countries. This dependence is especially severe in nations like South Sudan (100%), Libya (99%), Chad (99%), Angola (98%), Sudan (98%), Somalia (98%), and Algeria (96%).

Overall, Africa's commodity exports dropped 5.6% between 2012-2014 and 2021-2023. This was mainly due to reduced energy exports from Nigeria, Angola, and Algeria. As a result, total revenues from African commodity exports fell by over $25 billion compared to the previous decade, totaling $467 billion for the 2021-2023 period.

Global Trends in Commodity Dependence

Globally, the total number of commodity-dependent countries slightly decreased from 106 in 2012-2014 to 103 between 2021 and 2023. However, the severity of this dependence remained consistent. Seventy-three countries, mostly in Africa and South America, had commodity exports accounting for over 80% of total merchandise exports between 2021 and 2023, compared to 74 in 2012–2014.

Among 143 developing countries, 95 depended on commodity exports during 2021-2023, while only eight developed economies fell into this category.

Diverging trends emerged between the 2012-2014 and 2021-2023 periods. Seven countries—Comoros, Guatemala, Indonesia, Iran, Myanmar, Palau, and Trinidad and Tobago—saw the share of commodity exports fall below the 60% threshold of their total merchandise exports. Conversely, four countries became commodity-dependent during the same period: Antigua and Barbuda, Panama, South Africa, and Ukraine.

The report also noted that global commodity trade made up 32.7% of total global merchandise trade during 2021-2023. The Asia-Oceania region was the leading source of global commodity exports, accounting for 37.1% between 2021 and 2023. Europe followed with 33.7%, then the Americas with 22.7%, and Africa with 6.6%.

The report warns that without more efforts to diversify economies and add value to raw materials, commodity-dependent countries risk losing the chance to transform their natural wealth into engines of sustainable and resilient growth.

Walid Kéfi