Across Côte d'Ivoire, in major cities like Abidjan, Korhogo, and Gagnoa, a crucial question is sparking intense debate: Who will be the candidates in the October 2025 presidential election? This West African Francophone nation has seen its political landscape shaped for months by public declarations, party infighting, and impactful administrative rulings, with the most significant being Laurent Gbagbo's removal from the electoral roll. Even though the election is still some time off, it's already a primary focus.

The upcoming Ivorian presidential election, set for October, is shaping up to be a high-stakes event. In a country where each major vote resonates far beyond the ballot box, tension is rising. Political futures are being shaped not only in party headquarters but also on the streets, across social media, and in the minds of citizens. The atmosphere is both feverish and uncertain, as political calculations, popular expectations, and international scrutiny converge.

Tidjane Thiam: Between a Quest for Legitimacy and the Will to Lead

At the Democratic Party of Côte d'Ivoire (PDCI), Tidjane Thiam’s arrival has not ended internal debates. On the contrary, a power struggle is unfolding between the new generation, embodied by the former Credit Suisse CEO, himself recently struck from the electoral roll, and party veterans like Maurice Kakou Guikahué and Jean-Louis Billon, deepening divisions at the grassroots level.

A power struggle is unfolding between the new PDCI generation, embodied by the former Credit Suisse CEO, himself recently struck from the electoral roll, and party veterans like Maurice Kakou Guikahué and Jean-Louis Billon, deepening divisions at the grassroots level.

As early as January 2025, Thiam, a rising figure in the PDCI-RDA, began positioning himself for the presidency. To that end, he undertook a series of administrative steps to comply with the Ivorian Constitution, which mandates that presidential candidates hold only Ivorian nationality.

On February 7, 2025, Thiam initiated proceedings to renounce his French citizenship, which he had acquired in 1987 while living in France. This move aimed to clear any legal obstacles to his candidacy, given that Article 48 of the Ivorian Nationality Code stipulates an Ivorian citizen who voluntarily acquires another nationality automatically loses their Ivorian citizenship.

On March 20, 2025, the French administration published a decree in the Journal officiel officially accepting Thiam’s renunciation of French nationality, confirming his exclusive Ivorian citizenship. Bolstered by this development, the PDCI formally nominated him as its sole candidate at its April 17 convention.

But momentum quickly stalled. On April 10, a court in Abidjan, the administrative capital, suspended the issuance of a nationality certificate to Thiam, arguing he still held French citizenship when he registered to vote in December 2022. His eligibility was thrown into doubt.

On April 22, the ruling came down. The Abidjan-Plateau court officially removed Thiam from the provisional electoral roll on the grounds that he had lost his Ivorian nationality in 1987 and had not validly regained it before registering. The decision was declared irrevocable, closing off any further legal avenues.

Despite protests, Thiam’s name did not appear on the final electoral roll published on June 4, effectively disqualifying him from the race .In a matter of weeks, the rapid ascent of a formidable outsider ran into a legal wall, raising suspicions of political maneuvering.

Alassane Ouattara: A Decision Weighed in Conscience

Within the ruling Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP), the central question remains whether President Alassane Ouattara will seek re-election. Constitutionally eligible, the incumbent has stayed silent, maintaining a strategic ambiguity that fuels speculation, even within his own party.

Constitutionally eligible, the incumbent president has stayed silent, maintaining a strategic ambiguity that fuels speculation, even within his own party.

On Saturday, June 21, during the RHDP’s second ordinary congress in Abidjan, party members officially designated him as their candidate. Yet, the 83-year-old president has neither confirmed nor rejected the nomination.

"As for my candidacy in the presidential election… let me reiterate that I am the president of all Ivorians… I have heard you, I understand. I will make a decision in the coming days, after careful consideration, in all conscience," he said in a widely broadcast speech on June 22.

Laurent Gbagbo: Supporters Without Their Compass

The African Peoples’ Party – Côte d'Ivoire (PPA-CI) continues to reel from the removal of Laurent Gbagbo from the electoral roll, despite legal appeals. “It’s an injustice. President Gbagbo remains our moral candidate, even if we must choose a Plan B. He’s our compass,” said Claudine, a PPA-CI supporter. The former president’s exclusion, seen as a political move, casts uncertainty over the party’s strategy. Can it campaign without a candidate? Could someone else step in? For now, these questions remain unanswered, feeding the frustration of a loyal base.

A Tightly Regulated Electoral Process

As for Guillaume Soro and his GPS movement, prospects for a political comeback appear slim. In exile for years, the former speaker of parliament remains a polarizing figure for both the government and opposition.

Meanwhile, new voices are attempting to enter the fray. Grassroots candidacies and civil society movements are beginning to emerge, though they have yet to challenge the established order.

The electoral process, overseen by the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) and the Constitutional Council, remains a subject of debate. The opposition regularly questions the neutrality and composition of these institutions, alleging imbalance.

Voter registration began under mixed conditions. Some citizens struggled to obtain the necessary documents, while others pointed to geographic areas with poor coverage.

Public Engagement: Between Fatigue and Vigilance

In Abidjan’s streets, opinions are divided. Some are disillusioned with politics and reluctant to vote, while others insist they will cast their ballot no matter what. One sentiment persists: memories of the post-election violence in 2010 and 2020 are still fresh, prompting caution.

On the ground, the mood swings between resignation and alertness. “We voted in 2020, but nothing changed. This time, I’m hesitant,” said Idriss, a young hustler in Abidjan. Others are more resolute. “I will vote. Even if we’re disappointed, it’s the only way to change things,” said Sephora, a nurse.

With young people accounting for nearly 75% of the population, their role is seen as decisive. Their participation, or absence, could tip the scales. Highly active on social media, they represent an unpredictable electorate.

While fears of renewed violence linger, they are tempered by a desire for stability. “We don’t want war anymore. But we want fair elections,” said Mariam. Ismaël, a 32-year-old tradesman from Yopougon, echoed the sentiment, “No more war. But we also want to be respected.”

Media on the Campaign Trail: Between Bias, Social Media, and Disinformation

Coverage by traditional media remains heavily polarized. State-run RTI emphasizes government achievements while attempting to maintain balance. Private outlets, however, often take openly partisan stances. As a result, debates tend to focus more on personalities than policies.

“ Everyone knows who RTI is backing. Same for private channels. In the end, we just listen to bloggers.” 

“Everyone knows who RTI is backing. Same for private channels. In the end, we just listen to bloggers,” said a communications student in Abidjan. Political talk shows reflect this trend, with fiery exchanges overshadowing substance. The focus on personalities like Ouattara, Gbagbo, and Thiam often drowns out programmatic discussions.

Online, the battle is even fiercer. Rumors, doctored videos, and disinformation spread rapidly, stoking tensions. Although fact-checking groups like Repprelci and IvoireCheck try to counter the wave, the scale of the problem is overwhelming.

A Google Forms poll conducted for this article among 50 respondents found that 44.7% consider Ivorian media too partisan, while 52.6% say they no longer trust any national news source.

An Election with High Economic Stakes

The economic context adds another layer of complexity. Despite low inflation at 2.2% in May 2025, the cost of living is eroding purchasing power for the poor. Official unemployment stands below 3%, but underemployment remains widespread. According to the African Development Bank, about 400,000 new job seekers enter the market each year, while nearly 70% of the employed population works in precarious conditions, about 81% of them women.

According to the African Development Bank, about 400,000 new job seekers enter the market each year, while nearly 70% of the employed population works in precarious conditions, about 81% of them women.

Though the government touts infrastructure and industrial achievements, many Ivorians see little benefit. “They’re building overpasses, but young people don’t have jobs,” lamented Philippe, a journalist.

The opposition challenges the government's economic record, offering promises like microcredit, support for family farming, and lower taxes. The PDCI, for instance, proposes a revamped economic model to better integrate youth and SMEs.

But for many Ivorians, such promises fall flat. “We hear the same things before every election. Nothing changes for us,” said Hervé, a vendor in Adjamé, one of the most popular markets in Abidjan.

Among youth, economic concerns are especially acute. Many turn to digital entrepreneurship or dream of leaving the country. Promises targeting the younger generation will face intense scrutiny.

International Community: Watchful but Distant

International partners, while avoiding direct interference, are closely watching Côte d'Ivoire’s electoral process. France, the European Union, and institutions like the African Development Bank and the IMF are monitoring developments while maintaining diplomatic distance.

The IMF and World Bank continue their programs with Abidjan but are placing growing emphasis on good governance and political stability. Investors, too, are closely watching post-election stability. Prolonged uncertainty could delay projects, particularly in infrastructure and mining.

Given its economic weight, Côte d’Ivoire also draws particular attention from ECOWAS. The regional body, already weakened by military transitions elsewhere, is keen to avoid another crisis in what it sees as a model of post-conflict recovery.

Despite the tensions, the country is still managing to reassure investors. Fitch Ratings, for instance, expects that despite past electoral violence, most notably in 2010–2011, any new unrest will be contained and will not derail economic growth or fiscal consolidation.

Fitch Ratings expects that, despite past electoral violence, any new unrest will be contained and will not derail economic growth or fiscal consolidation.

Fitch projects continued reforms and policy continuity, maintaining the country’s BB- rating with a stable outlook.

Democratic Hopes Amid Lingering Uncertainty

With five months to go, stakes are rising. Key questions remain unanswered: Will Alassane Ouattara run again? Can Laurent Gbagbo find a way around his exclusion? Will the PDCI manage to field a candidate? And crucially, will voter turnout be strong?

The political landscape is taking shape in a climate of tension within parties, but also a deep desire for peace, electoral justice, and democratic renewal.

One thing is clear: the 2025 election will be no mere formality. It carries profound social, economic, and political significance. Depending on how the coming months unfold, it could either solidify the gains of a fragile peace, or reopen wounds that never fully healed.

In streets, neighborhoods, newsrooms, and foreign embassies, all eyes are on October 2025, with the same pressing question: Can Côte d’Ivoire assert its democracy without reigniting its demons?

This article was written in French by Ingrid Haffiny

Edited in English by Mouka Mezonlin