• IMF lifts Sub-Saharan Africa’s 2025 growth forecast to 4.0 %, a 0.2-point bump that adds an estimated US$3.6 billion in real GDP versus April.
• Revisions driven by a brighter global outlook (3.0 % world growth), a weaker dollar cutting African debt-service costs, and Nigeria’s 2 % GDP rebasing lifting its 2025 expansion to 3.4 %.
• Despite the uptick, the new forecast still trails January’s 4.2% call; looming 25% U.S. tariffs on South Africa and others, plus wider geopolitical risks, could quickly wipe out the gains.

The International Monetary Fund, in its July 2025 World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday, 29, now forecasts Sub-Saharan Africa's real gross domestic product (gdp) growth at 4.0% this year, an increase of two-tenths of a point from its April forecast. Compared to a 2024 real GDP estimate of approximately US$1.84 trillion, this change represents an additional US$3.6 billion in real output. The figure could be even higher when considering factors such as currency exchange effects, inflation, or purchasing power parity.

Three factors explain the revision.  First, the Fund upgraded its global outlook as fears of trade wars eased and the U.S. dollar weakened, lowering debt-servicing costs for African borrowers and causing a 0.2 percentage-point increase in global growth to 3.0 percent.  Second, Nigeria’s statistical agency completed a much-anticipated GDP rebasing, boosting the country's GDP estimate by roughly two per cent. The Fund now projects Nigeria's growth at 3.4 per cent in 2025, up from 3.0 per cent in April.  

Despite these positive revisions, the new growth figure for SSA remains below the 4.2 per cent forecast made by the Fund last January. Furthermore, the Bretton Woods institution highlights that global risks continue to exert downward pressure on the outlook. From August 1, new U.S. tariffs of 25 percent will be imposed on a dozen countries, including South Africa and Tunisia. The IMF has warned that further increases in trade tensions could easily erase the region’s limited progress.

"An escalation of geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East or Ukraine, could introduce new negative supply shocks to the global economy. Shipping routes and supply chains may be disrupted while commodity prices rise, especially if, unlike what happened in June, supply infrastructure were to be damaged. These forces would lower growth and reignite inflationary pressures", it said.

Original Story in French by Lydie Mobio
Adapted in English by Idriss Linge