(Ecofin Agency) - The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) is projected to achieve a 6.4% growth rate in the first quarter of 2024, according to the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO). This positive forecast aligns with the commencement of natural gas field exploitation and the initiation of a new oil pipeline by member countries, including Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, and Niger.

The BCEAO attributes this expected growth to an increase in domestic demand and steady improvements in key sectors such as transport, tourism, hospitality, and construction. Subsistence agriculture, trade, the manufacturing and extractive sectors, along with market and financial services, are anticipated to be major drivers of this growth.

As a reminder, significant developments have recently occurred in the region, especially with the operational start of natural gas exploitation and oil pipelines in several member countries. These advancements signify important milestones for the economies.

The 6.4% growth projection for the current quarter extends the positive trend noted throughout 2023 within the WAEMU. By the end of November, the economic activity within the union had shown promising signs, supported by robust domestic demand and continuous public investments. Industrial production increased by 4% year-over-year, with retail sales and services in markets and finance also seeing significant gains. Activity in the construction and public works sector has improved across the region, excluding Burkina Faso and Niger.

Despite these positive developments, ongoing security and political crises pose risks to the economic forecast of the WAEMU region. The lifting of sanctions imposed on Niger marks a milestone whose regional impact remains to be seen.

Looking ahead, the BCEAO predicted a 6.1% economic growth rate for the WAEMU in the last quarter of 2023, up from 5.8% in the preceding quarter.