After initial sanctions and threats of military intervention, ECOWAS appears to be shifting its strategy. The organization is now willing to lift sanctions against Niger, following an agreement on a transition and the release of President Bazoum.

ECOWAS is reportedly open to discussing a transition with the Niger coup leaders, as indicated in the final statement released after the 64th summit of the regional heads of state and government held on December 10, in Abuja.

While condemning the coup that ousted Mohamed Bazoum, ECOWAS has announced the establishment of a mission aimed at engaging in dialog with the military in power to reach a common ground.

"The Conference also decides to establish a Committee of Heads of State composed of H.E. Faure Gnassingbé, President of the Togolese Republic, H.E. Julius Maada Bio, President of the Republic of Sierra Leone, and Representatives of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and the President of the Republic of Benin to engage in dialog with the CNSP and other stakeholders in Niger, with a view to agreeing on a roadmap for a short-term transition, establishing transition bodies, and facilitating the creation of a monitoring and evaluation mechanism for the transition, with a view to the rapid restoration of constitutional order," emphasized the sub-regional authorities.

Based on the outcomes of these discussions, they state that ECOWAS could gradually ease the sanctions imposed on Niger.

This announcement marks a significant turning point in managing the Niger crisis. Discussing a transition with the military in power seems to definitively rule out the option of military intervention, which had lost momentum after an initially strong response following the coup. While calling for his release, ECOWAS heads of state now seem to have acknowledged the definitive fall of Mohamed Bazoum, aligning with the United States, which consistently opposed military intervention and eventually established official relations with the new government.

Economic implications for Benin and Nigeria

As the sub-regional organization changes its approach, the spotlight will be on the relations between the "New" Niger and its direct neighbors, Benin and Nigeria. Patrice Talon and Bola Tinubu (who holds the ECOWAS presidency) were the first to condemn the coup and put all means, including military intervention, on the table to reinstate Mohamed Bazoum.

Moreover, the immediate implementation of sanctions by these two countries, including border closures, interruptions in goods supply from the port of Cotonou, and electricity supply from Nigeria, had immediate effects denounced by General Tiani's regime.

Now, the two countries, seemingly reuniting under the leadership of former President Muhammadu Buhari, must defend their economic and commercial interests with Niger.

Benin appears to have more at stake. Excluding significant figures from informal trade, difficult to quantify, trade between Niger and Benin was over $15 million in 2022, according to the International Trade Center, with over $10.5 million from Beninese exports. Moreover, the Port of Cotonou, the country's economic hub, receives a large portion of its revenue from exports to hinterland countries, especially Niger. Most notably, the $4.5 billion Benin-Niger oil pipeline, over 2,000 km long, is at the heart of the economic agenda between the two countries.

In total, Benin hopes to generate around $490 million in tax revenue from this project over 20 years, not counting potential benefits from refining projects or technical contributions in terms of skills transfer and training of professionals in the sector. The breakdown of cooperation with Niger could thus lead to the loss of a considerable oil windfall for Beninese authorities, who have always considered this pipeline a project of great economic importance for the country.

For Nigeria, the stakes are no less important. Abuja exported $197.2 million worth of products to Niger and imported $33.4 million in 2022, according to the International Trade Center; Commercial exchanges that could be affected by a definitive diplomatic rupture with Niamey.

Regularly cited by many observers to benefit from potential market losses by its neighbors, Togo has always been measured in openly condemning the Nigerien coup leaders or in initiating a military operation to restore Mohamed Bazoum to power. President Faure Gnassingbé often mentioned as a discreet and effective mediator in sub-regional crises, could play a significant role in future discussions with the new government in Niamey.