With COP30 approaching, the International Renewable Energy Agency is calling for a global goal: to quadruple biofuel production and consumption by 2035.

On October 27, Francesco La Camera, director-general of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), called for the upcoming COP summit to adopt a global target to quadruple the production and use of sustainable fuels by 2035. He said the goal should be clearly reflected in the conference’s final declaration.

The proposal builds on recent analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which estimates that global output of biofuels and synthetic fuels could reach 28 exajoules by 2035, four times today’s levels, if existing policies are fully implemented. Currently, sustainable fuels account for only 1.3 percent of global energy consumption, with nearly 80 percent derived from liquid biofuels.

The proposal builds on recent analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which estimates that global output of biofuels and synthetic fuels could reach 28 exajoules by 2035, four times today’s levels, if existing policies are fully implemented. Currently, sustainable fuels account for only 1.3 percent of global energy consumption, with nearly 80 percent derived from liquid biofuels.

According to the IEA, these fuels have already helped cut global oil demand by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2024. They are also seen as one of the few practical options to decarbonize sectors that are hard to electrify, such as aviation, shipping, and heavy industry, while reducing countries’ reliance on imported fossil fuels.

Brazil, host of the upcoming COP and the world’s largest bioethanol producer, intends to make the summit a launchpad for an international coalition on sustainable fuels.

High costs remain a hurdle

Despite their potential, sustainable fuels still face major economic obstacles. The IEA estimates that biofuels currently cost 2.7 to 3.8 times more than conventional fossil fuels.

Even so, the impact on consumers would be limited, given the small blending ratios and the relatively low share of energy costs in final goods. Incorporating 15 percent of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) into jet fuel, for instance, would raise ticket prices by only 5 to 7 percent, according to the agency.

The agency recommends bold policy measures combining production incentives with the integration of biofuels into carbon markets.

Meeting global production targets will also require massive investment, about $1.5 trillion between 2024 and 2035 under the IEA’s accelerated scenario. The agency recommends bold policy measures combining production incentives with the integration of biofuels into carbon markets.

Yet market signals remain mixed. Shell and BP recently scrapped bioenergy projects in Rotterdam, citing unfavorable economic conditions. For IRENA, such setbacks highlight the need for stable, coordinated international policies to attract capital and build investor confidence.

If governments can agree on a shared pathway and create supportive market conditions, biofuels could become a cornerstone of the global energy transition in hard-to-abate sectors. Without binding commitments, however, IRENA warns that the promise of sustainable fuels risks remaining symbolic.

La Camera said he hopes COP30 will mark the moment when biofuels move from rhetoric to action, driving a transition that blends technological progress with social equity.

Olivier de Souza