Rating agency Fitch on March 7, has scaled down its forecast for global growth in 2016. The figure is now at 2.5% against 2.9% in December. The revision is as result of slowing investment in China and substantial decrease in public expenditures in commodity-producing nations.

In its new report on global economic outlook, Fitch forecast a growth of 1.7% in 2016 in developed economies, against 2.1% last December. For emerging economies, growth could reach 4%, against 4.4%, three months earlier, according to Fitch.

“With emerging markets at the epicentre of these shocks and now accounting for 40% of world GDP it is legitimate to ask whether the world will see, for more or less the first time in recent history, an emerging market led global recession. However, we believe several factors mitigate this risk,”said Brian Coulton, Chief economist at Ficth.According to Coulton who highlights that emerging markets are heterogeneous, such a risk is extremely low. Countries such as India, Poland, Turkey and South Korea are indeed net commodity importers, which they should benefit from, given actual low prices. China is also among those, but faces more important challenges, despite apparently having enough political resources and a satisfying diversity in growth drivers to avoid a harsh landing this year.

Russia and Brazil will record this year a recession, with respective rates of -1.5% (against +0.5% in December) and -3.5% (against -2.5% in December).

Fitch in fact added that labour market remains robust in various developed economies saying this should, combined to the impact of lower costs of energy on real revenue, sustain households’ consumption in rich economies.

The rating agency also forecast average price for Brent at $35/barrel in 2016 and $45 in 2017, against $55 and $65 previously.