• UN forecasts Africa growth at 4% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027 after 3.9% in 2025.
• East Africa to lead growth, while Central and Southern Africa lag behind.
• High inflation, debt costs, and commodity price swings remain key risks.

Africa’s average economic growth is expected to rise slightly to 4% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, up from an estimated 3.9% in 2025, the United Nations said in a report published on January 8. According to World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026, this trend will be driven by improved macroeconomic stability, higher domestic and foreign investment, and stronger consumer demand. However, diverging commodity price trends will continue to result in uneven performance across the continent, the document notes.

East Africa is expected to be the fastest-growing sub-region over the next two years, with growth projected at 5.8% in 2026 and 5.7% in 2027, compared with 5.4% in 2025. These results will be driven mainly by strong growth in Ethiopia and Kenya, the two largest economies in the sub-region, which are expected to post growth rates of 6.3% and 5.1%, respectively.

Growth in West Africa is expected to slow slightly to 4.4% in 2026 from 4.6% in 2025, before rebounding to 4.7% in 2027. In this sub-region, high prices for precious metals, particularly gold, are set to boost nominal GDP in exporting countries, indirectly supporting real growth through improved balance of payments positions and higher fiscal revenues. At the same time, persistently weak oil prices will weigh on nominal GDP and fiscal revenues in oil-exporting countries.

Growth in North Africa is also expected to ease, with rates projected at 4.1% in 2026 and 4% in 2027, down from 4.3% in 2025. The report attributes this slowdown to slightly tighter balance of payments conditions that are likely to curb domestic demand in several countries. In Egypt, however, GDP is projected to expand by 4.5% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027, supported in part by the expected positive effects of economic reforms aimed at attracting higher foreign financial inflows.

Inflation remains high in many countries

Central Africa is set to continue growing below the continental average, with growth estimated at 2.8% in 2025, followed by a modest acceleration to 3% in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027. Economic performance in this sub-region remains closely tied to commodity prices and extractive industries. Chad, the Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon are particularly exposed to risks linked to falling oil prices.

In Southern Africa, growth is expected to increase slightly to 2% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, up from 1.6% in 2025. These weak outcomes reflect a mix of domestic structural constraints and external headwinds. South Africa continues to weigh on sub-regional growth prospects, as deep-rooted challenges, including inadequate electricity supply, high unemployment, and weak mining and manufacturing performance, are expected to offset gains from higher gold prices.

Economic momentum in Botswana and Namibia has slowed due to lower diamond prices. In Lesotho, the apparel industry remains highly exposed to global trade disruptions, including the increase in U.S. tariffs to over 30% and the expiration of the African Growth and Opportunity Act. Angola, Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe are expected to continue facing double-digit inflation, likely prompting central banks to maintain tight monetary policies.

The report also notes that the diversification of Africa’s trading partners has provided some resilience against trade disruptions, while warning that limited diversification of export products remains a source of vulnerability for several economies. Although inflation has eased from its post-pandemic peak, it remains high in many African countries, limiting room for monetary policy easing.

At the same time, high debt service costs are constraining fiscal space for development spending, while fiscal consolidation and debt restructuring are advancing in several heavily indebted economies. Cuts in official development assistance from major donors and rising trade barriers are also expected to weigh on the continent’s growth outlook.

Walid Kéfi