• India explores African suppliers as Gulf-linked disruptions hit imports

• Morocco, Algeria, Egypt, and Togo among potential partners

• Shift could open new markets for African fertilizer producers

India is considering several African countries as part of efforts to diversify its fertilizer supply, alongside Russia, Australia, Malaysia, and Canada, according to Aparna Sharma, a senior official at the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers.

Speaking at a press briefing on March 30, Sharma said the list includes major North African producers such as Morocco, Algeria, and Egypt, as well as Togo, whose phosphate reserves support fertilizer production.

The move comes as escalating tensions in the Middle East—driven by the conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States since late February—have disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for oil and fertilizers. This has exposed vulnerabilities for India, the world’s most populous country, the second-largest fertilizer consumer, and a major agricultural producer.

Before the crisis, the Gulf region supplied around 20% to 30% of India’s urea imports and about 30% of its diammonium phosphate (DAP), Sharma said.

India’s fertilizer industry is also feeling the impact of rising fuel costs, as the country depends on the Middle East for about 50% of its liquefied natural gas imports.

Global implications

India is now looking to build up urea stocks in April and May ahead of the summer planting season, which is expected to require 39 million tons of fertilizer. About 18 million tons are already available in stock.

The shift toward diversifying fertilizer sources beyond the Gulf could create new commercial opportunities for African producers. On March 17, Reuters reported that the United States had also opened discussions with Morocco to secure fertilizer supplies.

A study by Global Sovereign Advisory (GSA), published on March 15, warns that prolonged increases in fertilizer prices could have significant consequences for India.

Rice is identified as the most exposed crop. India is both the world’s largest exporter of rice and the main supplier to Africa, holding about 40% of global market share. Pakistan and Thailand are also major importers of fertilizers from the Gulf.

According to the report, planting in India and Pakistan begins between late May and early June with the onset of the monsoon. Fertilizer application follows in two phases, around late June and late August 2026, with harvests expected by late October and rice entering markets in November.

As a result, fertilizer availability and pricing between June and August will directly influence rice prices toward the end of 2026.

Espoir Olodo