• IEA projects about two years for Middle East oil and gas production to return to pre-war levels.
• Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz fall from over 20 million barrels per day in February to 3.8 million in April.
• Energy infrastructure damage affects more than 80 facilities, including fields, refineries and pipelines.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects hydrocarbon production in the Middle East to take about two years to return to normal levels after recent disruptions, according to Executive Director Fatih Birol.

Birol gave the estimate in an interview published on Friday, April 17, by Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung. He said the recovery would take time even after a reopening of key transport routes.

“We estimate, however, that it will take about two years overall to reach pre-war levels again. Of course, on the day the Strait reopens, there will be a clear improvement, but a return to full capacity will take time,” Birol said.

The IEA based its outlook on a broad assessment of regional infrastructure conditions and constraints on export chains. The agency said disruptions have affected both extraction capacity and oil and gas export routes, as several strategic facilities have suffered damage or become inoperative.

Moreover, the agency said repair and restart operations would determine the pace of recovery. Birol added that the rebound would not occur evenly across the region, as countries would recover at different speeds depending on damage levels and system resilience.

In this context, maritime infrastructure has played a critical role. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles around 20% of global energy flows, remains under close monitoring by authorities and industry operators.

Meanwhile, oil exports through the strait dropped sharply from more than 20 million barrels per day in February, before the crisis began, to about 3.8 million barrels per day in April, according to the IEA’s Oil Market Report published on April 14.

The agency reported cumulative production losses of more than 360 million barrels in March and forecast an additional shortfall of about 440 million barrels in April.

In addition, the report identified physical damage across more than 80 energy assets, including oil fields, refineries, pipelines, and terminals, based on consolidated global market monitoring data.

“We should prepare for volatile markets for some time,” Birol said in the interview. He also said in March that the agency remained ready to act if necessary, after already releasing 400 million barrels from emergency reserves to stabilize markets.

Abdel-Latif Boureima