• Government prepares stockpile to absorb excess cobalt from export limits
• Surplus output continues to build despite quotas and restrictions
• Weak global prices and rising alternatives cloud market outlook

The Democratic Republic of Congo seeks to create a strategic reserve for key minerals, with cobalt at the center of the plan, as it seeks to manage growing surpluses and stabilize the market. The measure was approved during a Cabinet meeting on April 10, 2026, though the decree still awaits formal adoption and publication.

Cobalt, along with germanium and coltan, has been classified as a strategic mineral since 2018. However, according to sources familiar with the plan, the new reserve will primarily focus on cobalt, reflecting its weight in the country’s mining sector.

The initiative comes as stockpiles build up following export restrictions. In 2025, the DRC produced 100,015 tons of cobalt but exported only 44,338 tons, leaving a surplus of more than 55,000 tons.

Production is expected to remain strong in 2026, as cobalt is extracted as a byproduct of copper, whose prices are trending higher. Exports could rise to around 114,316 tons, including 87,000 tons allocated to mining companies, 9,600 tons under strategic quotas, and 17,716 tons carried over from unused 2025 quotas due to delays in implementing new export procedures.

A tool to manage market pressure

The accumulation of unsold cobalt ties up production, strains company cash flow, and increases storage costs. It also creates pressure to sell, which can weigh on prices. Without a mechanism to manage these volumes, a sudden release onto the market could trigger another price drop, undermining recent efforts to control supply through quotas and temporary export restrictions.

The planned reserve is intended to absorb excess output and prevent market disruption. Authorities say it will help stabilize prices, support policies aimed at increasing local value, and strengthen the country’s economic position in the global supply chain.

Yet the outlook for prices remains uncertain. According to the World Bank, cobalt averaged $33,910 per ton in 2024, far below the $80,000 peak reached in April 2022.

The institution attributes the weak recovery to persistent oversupply, the rapid expansion of alternative sources—particularly nickel-based materials in Indonesia—and the growing shift toward cobalt-free lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles.

As a result, cobalt prices are expected to remain flat or decline in 2026, underscoring the challenge facing the DRC, which accounts for more than 76% of global production.

Pierre Mukoko