• Jet fuel prices soared 76% to $171, depleting stocks in Zambia and South Africa due to the Middle East conflict
• Africa's air cargo rose 21% in Feb, led by the Africa-Asia corridor's 61.9% surge despite global instability
• Ethiopian Airlines thrives via its hub, while smaller carriers like ASKY face 55% fuel costs and insolvency risks

Jet fuel prices across Africa surged 76% in the weeks after war broke out in the Middle East in late February, reaching $171 a barrel according to the Platts price index — more than double the level recorded at the start of 2026 and a threshold not seen since the global energy shock of 2022.

About 70% of Africa’s imported aviation fuel moves through the Strait of Hormuz, according to aviation industry data — a structural dependency exposed when missile strikes expanded into a broader regional crisis on Feb. 28. Zambia’s fuel inventories fell to roughly 10 days of supply, South Africa’s domestic stocks covered three to four weeks and Kenya held approximately 50 days of reserves as of March 10, the Board of Airline Representatives of South Africa and each country’s energy regulators said in statements.

“Sharply rising fuel costs, fuel scarcity in parts of the world, and the severe disruption to key cargo hubs in the Gulf are major shifts,” Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association, said in a statement released with IATA’s February cargo market data. Walsh stopped short of projecting the full-year impact for African carriers, citing the conflict’s unpredictable trajectory.

Survival Stakes

The fuel shock struck as new data from IATA says Africa’s airlines posted the world’s fastest growth in air cargo in February 2026, with a 21% rise in cargo tonne-kilometres from a year earlier. This is the highest of six regions tracked and nearly double the 11.2% global average. The Africa–Asia corridor expanded 61.9% in the same period, marking its eighth consecutive month of growth, yet Africa holds only 1.3% of global air cargo — a gap the fuel crisis now threatens to widen further.

Ethiopian Airlines, Africa’s largest carrier with a network spanning more than 145 destinations, entered the crisis with the balance-sheet depth to source fuel outside the Gulf, people familiar with its operations said. The Addis Ababa-based airline signed lease agreements in late March with AerCap Holdings for two Boeing 777-300ERSF converted freighters — the first of their type on the continent — a commitment that signalled long-run confidence in African cargo demand. Kenya Airways, Kenya’s flag carrier, accelerated the deployment of a Boeing 767 freighter to capture rising cargo yields, Air Cargo News reported.

The picture looked bleaker for smaller operators. ASKY Airlines, a pan-African carrier backed by Ethiopian Airlines that serves 23 countries from its hub in Lomé, Togo, faced fuel costs weakening outlook on several thin regional routes. FlySafair, South Africa’s largest low-cost carrier by domestic market share, said fuel accounts for 50% to 55% of its direct operating costs — roughly twice the 20% to 25% global average cited by the African Airlines Association. Precision Air, Tanzania’s largest private airline, and Air Côte d’Ivoire, the Ivory Coast’s flag carrier, reported cost increases not budgeted for 2026.

The vulnerability reflects structural gaps in Africa’s refining capacity. The continent has only two fully operational large-scale refineries capable of producing jet fuel commercially — Sasol’s Natref plant and Glencore’s Astron Energy, both in South Africa. Egypt, Rwanda, Ethiopia, and Tanzania each reported airline cost pressures, as did Air Mauritius, the flag carrier of an island economy with no domestic fuel production and near-total dependence on air cargo for its high-value and perishable exports, according to people familiar with each carrier’s finances.

The crisis did not punish African aviation uniformly. On the Africa–Asia corridor, where cargo demand expanded 61.9% in February, rate increases outpaced higher fuel costs for carriers with adequate freighter capacity. Ethiopian Cargo reported a surge in bookings as disruptions at Gulf hubs diverted freight to Addis Ababa’s Bole International Airport, which operates a cargo terminal with a capacity of 1 million metric tons a year, according to company data.

Whether the two-speed divide hardens into lasting consolidation will become clearer over the next quarter. The first African Air Transport Convention, scheduled for June in Lomé, Togo, gives regulators a forum to weigh cargo-right liberalization and emergency fuel-sharing protocols — steps analysts said could help smaller carriers find partners or scale before a less orderly restructuring forecloses those options.

Idriss Linge