• Prices for energy, metals, fertilizers, and food are expected to drop in 2025 and 2026, according to the World Bank.
• Lower global growth and strong oil supply are driving the decline in commodity prices.
• Falling prices could ease inflation but may hurt growth prospects in two-thirds of developing countries.

Most commodity prices are likely to fall in 2025 and 2026, the World Bank said in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report, released Tuesday, April 29, 2025. The drop is being driven by slower global economic growth and an oversupply of oil.

According to the report, overall commodity prices are projected to decline by 12% in 2025 and by another 5% in 2026.

If these forecasts hold, prices would reach their lowest level since 2020. In nominal terms, prices will still be higher than pre-pandemic levels, but when adjusted for inflation, they are expected to dip below the 2015–2019 average for the first time.

Energy prices to see steepest drop

Energy prices are expected to fall by 17% in 2025 and decline by another 6% in 2026. Brent crude prices are forecast to average $64 per barrel in 2025, down $17 from 2024, before slipping to $60 in 2026. The drop reflects weaker global oil demand, which is slowing in part due to the rise in electric vehicle use. In China, the world’s biggest car market, over 40% of all new cars sold last year were electric or hybrid, nearly triple the share in 2021.

At the same time, oil supply is expected to outpace demand by 700,000 barrels per day in 2025.

Natural gas prices are projected to move in the opposite direction. In the United States, prices are expected to rise by 51% in 2025 and 3% in 2026. In Europe, gas prices are set to increase by 6% this year but decline by 9% in 2026.

Coal prices are forecast to drop by 27% in 2025 and by an additional 5% in 2026, as demand for coal in power generation weakens in developing economies.

Metals expected to slide, with few exceptions

Metal prices are also heading downward, with a projected 10% drop in 2025 and a 3% fall in 2026.

Tin is the only major industrial metal expected to post gains, thanks to tighter supply. Other metals are likely to decline in value as global industrial activity slows.

Iron ore prices are expected to fall by 13% this year and by 7% next year. Copper is forecast to lose 10% in 2025 and 2% in 2026.

Gold, which often rises in times of geopolitical tension, is expected to hit a record average price this year before leveling off in 2026. Its value will remain about 150% higher than the average seen in the five years before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Silver and platinum are also set to gain ground. Silver prices are forecast to rise by 16.7% in 2025 and 3% in 2026. Platinum is expected to go up by 9% this year and 2.4% the next.

Food prices set to ease, but coffee and cocoa tell a different story

Global food prices are expected to fall by 7% in 2025 and 1% in 2026. Corn prices are projected to decline by 2% in both years, as falling oil prices reduce demand for ethanol and higher U.S.–China trade tariffs weigh on the market. Soybean oil is expected to drop by 3% in 2025 and 2% in 2026. Wheat prices are seen falling by 2.1% and 1.1% respectively.

Coffee markets are heading in different directions. Arabica prices are forecast to surge by over 50% in 2025 before retreating by 15% in 2026, as production increases in Colombia. Robusta is expected to climb by 25% this year and then dip by 9% in 2026.

Cocoa prices are set to rise by 9% in 2025, followed by a 13% fall in 2026.

Lower prices may ease inflation, but hurt exporters

The World Bank noted that the broad decline in commodity prices marks the end of the surge that followed the global recovery from the pandemic and the 2022 war in Ukraine. This trend may help keep inflation in check in the short term, especially as trade tensions rise under the new U.S. administration.

However, the outlook is not entirely positive. The World Bank warns that two-thirds of developing countries, many of which depend on commodity exports, could see their economic prospects dim as a result.