• Africa needs 6.1 million additional health professionals to reach universal health coverage by 2030, Africa CDC says.

• Only Rwanda, Botswana, and Cabo Verde meet the Abuja Declaration target of allocating 15% of national budgets to health.

• Africa could generate up to $410 trillion in monetized economic benefits by 2063 under an ambitious health investment scenario.

Africa needs 6.1 million additional health professionals to achieve universal health coverage and meet essential healthcare needs by 2030, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention. Africa CDC disclosed this estimate in its report “African Health Workforce Compact | Investment Case Analysis Report,” published on January 29, 2026.

The report shows that Africa faces severe fiscal constraints. Only Rwanda, Botswana, and Cabo Verde meet or exceed the 2001 Abuja Declaration target, which urges governments to allocate at least 15% of national budgets to health spending.

Africa continues to face staff shortages, chronic underfunding, and persistent brain drain, which together fuel another costly outflow: medical tourism. The African Development Bank estimates that Africans lost $2.4 trillion to overseas medical care, underscoring deep gaps in trust and capacity within domestic health systems.

Reframing health as an investment

Africa CDC urges governments to shift their analytical framework. The institution calls on policymakers to treat health not as a budgetary cost but as a continental investment opportunity. The report quantifies not only the cost of scaling up health staffing but also the economic returns of doing so.

Rather than focusing on 2030 alone, Africa CDC aligns its projections with the African Union’s Agenda 2063, titled “The Africa We Want.” The framework outlines a 50-year strategy, spanning 2013 to 2063, to achieve an integrated, prosperous, and peaceful Africa.

The report identifies concrete investment targets for Africa’s health system by defining staffing density per 10,000 people. Africa CDC emphasizes that universal health coverage depends on operational capacity rather than political rhetoric.

Staffing density required to achieve universal health coverage

Modeled density per 10,000 people

Source: Africa CDC

Africa CDC shows that Africa must exert greater effort than global averages due to accumulated gaps, epidemiological profiles, and structural constraints. The report then estimates the real cost of training, recruiting, deploying, and retaining health workers, including education, salaries, recurrent expenses, and infrastructure investments.

Africa and the scale of its ambitions

Africa CDC models three continental investment scenarios through 2063. The first scenario extends current trends under a status quo approach. This scenario requires cumulative spending of $5 trillion to train and deploy health workers.

The second scenario targets moderate progress toward 70% universal health coverage. Africa CDC estimates total costs at $14.9 trillion.

The third and most ambitious scenario aims for full universal health coverage by 2063. This scenario requires $20 trillion in cumulative investment.

The report then details training costs by professional category through 2063, excluding migration effects to isolate workforce production needs. Costs vary sharply across scenarios.

Higher education training costs by cadre (USD)

Source: Africa CDC

Africa CDC adopts a critical methodological assumption. The report does not assume perfect training completion rates. The model incorporates completion rates of 74.7% for general practitioners, 64.5% for laboratory scientists and technicians, and 82.6% for nurses and midwives.

As a result, Africa must expand admissions beyond target graduate numbers to offset dropouts, delays, and early exits. Without this adjustment, countries would fail to reach staffing density targets.

Retaining talent to boost economic returns

Training expansion delivers collective gains only if graduates remain in national systems. Africa CDC identifies health worker migration as a central risk. Due to limited data, the model applies a uniform annual emigration rate of 3% across all cadres and regions, while warning that this assumption may understate reality.

Under this parameter, cumulative monetized losses from migration would reach $1.4 trillion by 2063 under the status quo scenario. Losses would fall to $432 billion under the ambitious scenario, as larger workforces absorb relative losses more effectively.

The report cites contrasting indicators. In 2022, estimated annual emigration rates reached 0.5% for doctors and 0.4% for nurses. However, surveys conducted between 2021 and 2023 show that 42.2% of health workers in six countries Eswatini, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe expressed intentions to migrate.

Africa CDC warns that the gap between observed behavior and stated intent undermines long-term planning credibility.

Expanding and retaining health workforces generates economic value beyond health outcomes. Africa CDC estimates cumulative monetized benefits of $45.2 trillion under the status quo, $266.4 trillion under the moderate scenario, and $410 trillion under the ambitious scenario by 2063.

The report derives these benefits from the valuation of avoided deaths and disabilities. Africa CDC estimates that every dollar invested would generate $8.1 in benefits under the status quo, $16.9 under the moderate scenario, and $19.4 under the ambitious scenario, provided systems absorb trained workers effectively.

A test of sovereignty

Africa CDC concludes that Africa gains economically by investing in health systems. The report warns that without credible retention policies—covering wages, working conditions, career progression, and professional recognition—training investments risk strengthening health systems in high-income countries instead.

The report also stresses that weak migration data, incomplete workforce density metrics, and uncertain needs undermine planning accuracy. Without strong domestic financing, universal health coverage will remain vulnerable to aid cycles and political volatility.

In several African countries, public funding accounts for less than 10% of total health expenditure. Africa CDC cites the Central African Republic at 8.2%, Chad at 8.3%, and the Democratic Republic of Congo at 9.4%.

Africa CDC argues that political and fiscal sustainability depends on national budget choices, domestic revenue mobilization, and long-term protection of social spending.

Africa’s health challenge therefore extends beyond human resources. The issue tests fiscal sovereignty, governance capacity, and the continent’s ability to retain those who deliver care.

This article was initially published in French by Muriel EDJO

Adapted in English by Ange J.A de BERRY QUENUM