Civil nuclear power has long been a source of controversy, but driven by the energy transition, it is gaining ground globally, reviving both expectations and uncertainty about its future and that of the uranium market.

April 1986 to April 2026 marks 40 years since the Chernobyl nuclear disaster. The uranium market continues to move through pronounced cycles, and after months of stagnation, prices have rebounded, reaching $101 per pound earlier this year. Driven by renewed global interest in nuclear energy, the recovery is reviving mining projects. However, it also serves as a reminder that a market historically sensitive to external shocks remains inherently fragile.

From Chernobyl to Fukushima: Prices Under Pressure

Civil nuclear power emerged after World War Two, under the American “Atoms for Peace” program, and expanded rapidly in the 1970s as reactors were deployed worldwide. That momentum gradually faded, particularly after the Chernobyl disaster in Ukraine. The immediate human toll of the reactor explosion, estimated at around 30 deaths, and the scale of its environmental consequences significantly slowed the expansion of civil nuclear power in the years that followed.

On the uranium market, the impact was quickly reflected in a prolonged downturn, with prices ranging between $7 and $10 per pound until the early 2000s. The gradual restart of nuclear programs, notably in China, and the resulting increase in demand then triggered a new upward cycle. That cycle peaked in 2007, when prices hit a historic high of $136 per pound. The momentum came to an abrupt halt with the nuclear accident at Fukushima in Japan in March 2011.

Once again, the pattern echoed Chernobyl, with significant environmental consequences, a global retreat from civil nuclear power, and the start of a new downward price cycle for uranium. From Japan to China and Germany, several countries moved to shut down existing plants and slow new projects. Between March and August 2011, prices fell immediately from $72 per pound to $49 per pound, before continuing their decline to $22 per pound in 2017.

Forty years on, civil nuclear power and uranium are back in the spotlight, as major powers seek to rely on nuclear energy as part of their energy transitions. That dynamic pushed prices above $100 per pound in January 2024, ahead of the rally seen this year.

Optimistic forecasts are emerging again for the uranium market. The World Nuclear Association expects strong growth in global demand, surpassing 150,000 tonnes by 2040. Despite tighter safety standards and the adoption of technologies considered safer, such as small modular reactors (SMRs), recent developments show structural similarities to past cycles. This underscores the volatility of a uranium market that remains as fragile as ever.

What Does This Mean for Africa?

For Africa, where new projects are taking shape in both mining and civil nuclear power, these dynamics should be closely monitored. For now, renewed global interest is already benefiting the continent. The restart of the Kayelekera uranium mine in Malawi in August 2025, more than a decade after it closed in 2014 due to low prices, is one example.

At the same time, Paladin Energy plans to accelerate efforts to reach nominal production at its Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia by mid-2026. “Higher prices are good for everybody,” Chief Executive Paul Hemburrow was quoted as saying by Reuters. Also active in Namibia, Bannerman Energy is considering a final investment decision (FID) within the next six to twelve months to begin construction of its Etango project.

Other African projects, including Dasa in Niger and Tiris in Mauritania, remain at the pre-FID stage. While these positive signals have generated some enthusiasm among industry players, caution prevails. For Gabi Schneider, chief executive of the Namibia Uranium Institute, the development of future mines will depend largely on “the future evolution of the uranium price.” How these dynamics will unfold in the months and years ahead remains uncertain, in a market where the scars of past crises remain vivid.

Aurel Sèdjro Houenou